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Amazon.com, Inc. — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

AMZN
NASDAQConsumer CyclicalSpecialty RetailCIK 0001018724amazon.comAbout AMZN
Last close · Oct 16, 2026250.00−4.76 (−1.87%)
Market cap$2.7T
Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y
88.78
Amazon closed at $250.00 — overvalued by 182% vs model.
60.82the model's range162.43

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for profitable growth — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models
6.64 – 433.10
Wall St. target
330.00 24% below
Above model, 1y
84 of 97 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean
Daily close

Valuation models

price $250.00 · as of Oct 17, 2026

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for profitable growth — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. How we value a stock walks through every input. The price is 182% above the model value: the models see only the filed business, and a company priced on businesses with no revenue line yet is better taken apart, as Tesla is.

engine pkg:0.1.0

Research on AMZN

2 posts
Anthropic's $16.8B quarter: the investor day numbers
What attendees of Anthropic's October 14 investor day reported: Q3 revenue of $16.8B, an 11% adjusted margin, $1.70 per compute dollar, a slower pace.
Allen Yan · · 10 min · 中文
Anthropic's IPO prospectus: the numbers behind the $42B loss
Anthropic's confidential S-1 as Reuters reported it on Sep 28-29, 2026: the income statement, $518B of compute commitments by partner, and the Founder LLC vote.
Allen Yan · · 8 min · 中文
Studied AMZN from its filings? Guest posts are reviewed before they go live.Write about AMZN →

How it is valued

Valued asProfitable Growth
Moderate growth (~12% recent)Moderate margins (11% net margin)Highly cyclical earnings
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2025
P/E
34.9×
EV / EBITDA
16.7×
FCF yield
0.3%
Dividend yield, TTM
0.00%
Beta
1.46
Cost of capital (WACC)
10.15%
On the lists: #5 Largest companies
Full financials

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted
10-12Wells Fargo · target329.00
10-06Tigress Financial · target385.00
09-30Rosenblatt Securities · target360.00
02-06DA Davidson · “Neutral” from “Buy”downgrade
Ratings, targets and estimates

The weekly

One email a week across every stock we cover: 13F filings, insider trades, earnings and new research. It covers the whole market, not just AMZN. No account.

About Amazon

Amazon.com, Inc. operates a vast global retail enterprise, distributing consumer goods and subscription services through both its extensive online platforms and a network of physical stores across North America and internationally. Its operations are structured into three primary segments: North America, International, and Amazon Web Services (AWS). The company's product offerings encompass both merchandise and content procured for direct resale, alongside items sold by third-party merchants on its platform. Furthermore, the company develops and markets its own range of electronic devices, such as Kindle e-readers, Fire tablets and TVs, Ring, Blink, eero, and Echo products. It also invests in the development and production of original media content. Amazon provides various programs designed to enable independent sellers to offer their products, and empowers authors, musicians, filmmakers, Twitch streamers, and app developers to publish and commercialize their content. Beyond this, it delivers a comprehensive suite of cloud computing solutions, including compute, storage, database, analytics, and machine learning services through AWS. The company also offers fulfillment services, advertising solutions, and digital content subscriptions. A key offering is Amazon Prime, its exclusive membership program. Amazon caters to a wide array of clientele, including individual consumers, third-party sellers, software developers, enterprise clients, content creators, and advertisers. Incorporated in 1994, Amazon.com, Inc. maintains its headquarters in Seattle, Washington.

CEO
Andrew R. Jassy
Headquarters
Seattle, WA
Employees
1,576,000
IPO
1997-05-15
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.