Market Sentiment Gauge
Where the market's mood sits today, 0 to 100. Six factors in the style of the well-known seven-factor fear-and-greed index, each ranked against its own last two years and averaged into one number. Three factors are faithful, three are proxies on the 518-stock public universe, one is absent — every card says which. A state and its history, with the arithmetic printed below; the long version, with what the index did after each band, is how to read a market sentiment gauge.
One year of the gauge
The seven factors
Percentile of each factor's own last 504 trading days · faithful follows the original · proxy stands in for a series we do not have · absent not computedMarket momentum
faithfulDefinition
S&P 500 close against its 125-day moving average: close ÷ MA125 − 1. Above the average reads as greed.
Market volatility
faithfulDefinition
VIX against its 50-day moving average, sign flipped: −(VIX ÷ MA50 − 1). A VIX above its average reads as fear.
Safe haven demand
faithfulDefinition
20-trading-day return of SPY minus that of TLT. Stocks outrunning long Treasuries reads as greed.
Junk bond demand
proxyDefinition
20-trading-day return of HYG (high yield) minus that of LQD (investment grade). High yield outrunning investment grade reads as risk appetite.
The original uses the high-yield option-adjusted spread; there is no spread series here, so two ETFs' price returns stand in for it.
Stock price strength
proxyDefinition
Stocks at a 52-week closing high minus stocks at a 52-week closing low, as a share of the stocks counted that day.
Counted over the public universe (the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 constituents), not every NYSE listing.
Stock price breadth
proxyDefinition
McClellan volume summation index: net advancing volume as a share of total volume, 19-day EMA minus 39-day EMA, accumulated from the first day of the series.
Counted over the same public universe, not the NYSE. The summation's level depends on where it starts; only its percentile is used.
Put and call options
absentDefinition
Five-day average of the CBOE equity put/call ratio.
Not computed: there is no options-volume source here. The score averages the six factors above.
How the gauge is computed
Full definitions in the gauge guide →Today's window: Oct 14, 2024 to Oct 16, 2026 (504 trading days). Breadth counted 516 of 518 stocks on the latest close. The number will not match the CNN index: three factors are proxies, one is absent, and the ranking window is our own.
Questions
Is this the CNN Fear & Greed Index?
No. It is built in the style of that seven-factor index, but three of the seven factors are proxies and one is absent, and each factor is ranked against its own last two years rather than a fixed scale. The direction usually agrees; the level will not.
Which factors are proxies?
Junk bond demand uses the 20-day return of HYG minus LQD instead of the high-yield option-adjusted spread; stock price strength and breadth are counted over the 518 stocks of the public universe (the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 constituents) rather than every NYSE listing. The put/call factor is not computed at all.
What does the number mean?
Each factor's value is turned into a percentile of that factor's own last 504 trading days, so 71 on momentum means 71% of the past two years' days were more fearful on momentum than today. The score is the equal-weighted average of the available percentiles, rounded.
What happens when a factor is missing?
It is left out of the average and marked unavailable on its card; it is never filled in with a neutral 50, which would inject a signal that was not observed.
How often does it update?
Once a day after the US close, from the same nightly refresh the stock pages use. The date on the dial is the S&P 500 close it reflects.
Is a low reading a reason to act?
It is a description of where six market series sit against their own recent history, and nothing more. The page states a condition and how often it has occurred; it does not tell you what to do about it.
The weekly
The week's 13F filings, insider trades and earnings, plus new research on the site. One email a week, no account.
A reading describes where six market series sit against their own recent history on one day and is not investment advice. Updated once a day after the US close. The longer version, with two years of readings held against the S&P 500: How to read a market sentiment gauge.