Target Corporation — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

TGT

NYSEConsumer DefensiveDiscount StoresCIK 0000027419corporate.target.comAbout TGT

Last close · Oct 16, 2026154.24−2.39 (−1.53%)

Market cap$70.1B

Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y

126.95

Target closed at $154.24 — overvalued by 21% vs model.

79.53the model's range279.49

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a mature, steady company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models

85.02 – 233.18

Wall St. target

169.00 9% below

Above model, 1y

6 of 22 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean

Daily close

Valuation models

price $154.24 · as of Oct 17, 2026

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5yused79.53 – 279.49126.9521% overvalued DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y85.88 – 278.07132.1217% overvalued DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y144.56 – 312.62221.6430% undervalued DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y131.95 – 304.38205.5325% undervalued P/E · peers161.33 – 387.93168.599% undervalued P/E · own history107.31 – 178.30146.305% overvalued PEG—107.3244% overvalued EV/EBITDA · peers189.47 – 358.93211.4427% undervalued EV/Revenue · peers161.01 – 297.03233.1834% undervalued Earnings power value69.67 – 111.7586.8678% overvalued Dividend discount59.91 – 133.1585.0281% overvalued Wall St. consensus target—169.009% below Cost of capital (WACC)—8.18%—

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a mature, steady company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. How we value a stock walks through every input.

engine pkg:0.1.0

Dividends

Quarterly · as of Oct 16, 2026

Yield, trailing 12 months

2.97%

Past 2 years

low 2.70%high 5.40%

Dividends per share, a year at a time

Dividends / free cash flow, FY2026: 72.4%
Raised: 42+ years in a row
Growth, 5 yrs: 9.3% a year
Last change: +1.8% · Aug 2026

Every payment, with ex-dates · latest $1.16, paid Sep 1, 2026

Research on TGT

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How it is valued

Valued asMature & stable

Revenue declining (~-1% recent)Thin margins (3.5% net margin)Pays dividendsHighly cyclical earnings

What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2026 · chosen for mature companies

P/E

19.0×

EV / EBITDA

9.7×

FCF yield

4.0%

Dividend yield, TTM

2.97%

Beta

0.98

Cost of capital (WACC)

8.18%

On the lists: #32 Best performing this year · #11 Dividend growth streaks

Full financials

Superinvestors

13F · Q2 2026

Richard PzenaPzena Investment Management LLC$48.8M Mairs & PowerMairs & Power Inc$20.8M Dodge & CoxDodge & Cox$12.5M David KatzMatrix Asset Advisors Inc$6.8M

All 6 holders

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted

10-13Evercore ISI · target165.00

09-30HSBC · “Buy” from “Hold”upgrade

09-30HSBC · target190.00

08-20Deutsche Bank · target150.00

Ratings, targets and estimates

Recent

filings, insider trades and key news

09-30Form 4 · AWEINSTEIN MARK A. · 23,787 sh@ 0.00 09-30Form 4 · AWEINSTEIN MARK A. · 2,142 sh@ 0.00 09-30Form 4 · FLee James · 7,636 sh@ 157.94 08-28S-8Employee stock plan registration 08-28S-3ASRShelf registration (automatic)08-2810-QQuarterly report

57 filings · 40 insider transactions

Comparable companies

by business, not by industry label

WMTWalmart COSTCostco DGDollar General DLTRDollar Tree AMZNAmazon KRKroger BBYBest Buy

6 more companies list TGT as a comparable

ULTAUlta Beauty TJXTJX Companies ROSTRoss Stores WSMWilliams-Sonoma CASYCasey's TSCOTractor Supply

Side by side:vs WMT

The weekly

One email a week across every stock we cover: 13F filings, insider trades, earnings and new research. It covers the whole market, not just TGT. No account.

About Target

Target Corp. engages in the operation and ownership of general merchandise stores. It offers food and general merchandise, clothing and household goods, electronics, and toys. Its brands include A New Day, All in Motion, Art Class, Auden, AVA & VIV, Boots and Barkley, Brightroom, Bullseye's Playground, Casaluna, Cat & Jack, Cloud Island, Colsie, dealworthy, Embark, Everspring, Favorite Day, Figmint, Future Collective, Gigglescape, Good & Gather, Goodfellow & Co, Hearth & Hand with Magnolia, Heyday, Hyde & EEK! Boutique, JoyLab, Kindfull, Kona Sol, Made By Design, Market Pantry, Mondo Llama, More Than Magic, Opalhouse, Open Story, Original Use, Pillowfort, Project 62, Room Essentials, Shade & Shore, Smartly, Smith & Hawken, Sonia Kashuk, Spritz, Sun Squad, Threshold, Universal Thread, up&up, Wild Fable, Wondershop, Xhilaration, California Roots, Casa Cantina, The Collection, Headliner, Jingle & Mingle, Rosé Bae, Photograph, SunPop, and Wine Cube. The company was founded by George Draper Dayton in 1902 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, MN.

CEO: Michael J. Fiddelke
Headquarters: Minneapolis, MN
Employees: 415,000
IPO: 1967-10-18

Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.