SweetValueLab
Write for us

Shopify Inc. — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

SHOP
NASDAQTechnologySoftware - ApplicationCIK 0001594805shopify.comAbout SHOP
Last close · Oct 16, 2026169.52−8.62 (−4.84%)
Market cap$220.0B
Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y
24.26
Shopify closed at $169.52 — overvalued by 599% vs model.
19.06the model's range34.31

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a software company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models
25.07 – 125.06
Wall St. target
180.00 6% below
Above model, 1y
78 of 78 days

Price and model value

Embed this card

SHOP's close against its model value, as a 420×168 card for your own page. It updates nightly with this site and links back here.

Free to embed; keep the attribution link.
Loading chart…
What the marks mean
Daily close

Valuation models

price $169.52 · as of Oct 17, 2026

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a software company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. How we value a stock walks through every input. The price is 599% above the model value: the models see only the filed business, and a company priced on businesses with no revenue line yet is better taken apart, as Tesla is.

engine pkg:0.1.0

Research on SHOP

No posts on SHOP yet.
Studied SHOP from its filings? Guest posts are reviewed before they go live.Write about SHOP →

How it is valued

Valued asSoftware
High revenue growth (~28% recent)Moderate margins (11% net margin)Highly cyclical earnings
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2025 · chosen for software companies
Price / sales
19.1×
Revenue growth
30.1%
Gross margin
48.1%
FCF margin
17.4%
Rule of 40
47.5%
Operating margin
12.7%
Full financials

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted
10-14Stifel Nicolaus · target210.00
10-14Robert W. Baird · target190.00
10-12Cantor Fitzgerald · target158.00
07-21Rothschild & Co · “Neutral” from “Buy”downgrade
Ratings, targets and estimates

Comparable companies

by business, not by industry label
1 more company lists SHOP as a comparable

The weekly

One email a week across every stock we cover: 13F filings, insider trades, earnings and new research. It covers the whole market, not just SHOP. No account.

About Shopify

Shopify Inc. functions as a premier commerce technology company, providing an extensive platform and associated services to empower businesses worldwide. Its reach extends across Canada, the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific region, and Latin America. The company's robust platform equips merchants to effectively display, organize, market, and sell their merchandise through a multitude of sales avenues. These include digital storefronts accessible via web and mobile, traditional brick-and-mortar stores, temporary pop-up locations, integrated social media channels, proprietary mobile applications, embeddable "buy buttons," and established online marketplaces. Beyond sales, the platform streamlines crucial business operations such as product and inventory management, order and payment processing, fulfillment and shipping logistics, attracting new customers and fostering client relationships, product sourcing, analytical reporting, financial administration encompassing cash, payments, and transactions, and facilitating access to working capital. Additionally, Shopify offers supplementary services like the sale of custom website themes and applications, alongside domain name registration. Its merchant-focused solutions also cover payment acceptance, efficient shipping and order fulfillment, and aid in securing necessary operating funds. Founded in 2004 under the initial name Jaded Pixel Technologies Inc., the company officially rebranded to Shopify Inc. in November 2011. Its global headquarters are located in Ottawa, Canada.

CEO
Tobias Lutke
Headquarters
Ottawa, ON
Employees
7,600
IPO
2015-05-20
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.