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Costco Wholesale Corporation — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

COST
NASDAQConsumer DefensiveDiscount StoresCIK 0000909832costco.comAbout COST
Last close · Oct 16, 2026989.11+11.10 (+1.13%)
Market cap$438.3B
Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y
404.25
Costco closed at $989.11 — overvalued by 145% vs model.
286.40the model's range772.89

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a mature, steady company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models
85.19 – 1,092.62
Wall St. target
1,079.00 8% below
Above model, 1y
22 of 22 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean
Daily close

Dividends

Quarterly · as of Oct 16, 2026
Yield, trailing 12 months
0.56%
Past 2 years
low 0.43%high 2.18%
Dividends per share, a year at a time
$3.07Oct ’21$3.49Oct ’22$3.96Nov ’23$18.34Jul ’24$4.92Aug ’25$5.54TTM
Dividends / free cash flow, FY2026
26.2%
Raised
21+ years in a row
Growth, 5 yrs
12.5% a year
Last change
+13.1% · May 2026
Every payment, with ex-dates · latest $1.47, paid Aug 7, 2026

Research on COST

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How it is valued

Valued asMature & stable
Low/slowing growth (~9% recent)Thin margins (3.0% net margin)
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2026 · chosen for mature companies
P/E
47.6×
EV / EBITDA
36.3×
FCF yield
0.0%
Dividend yield, TTM
0.56%
Beta
0.87
Cost of capital (WACC)
8.80%
On the lists: #24 Largest companies
Full financials

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted
10-15Tigress Financial · target1,250.00
09-28Deutsche Bank · target1,079.00
09-25Truist Financial · target955.00
09-08Freedom Broker · “Buy” from “Hold”upgrade
Ratings, targets and estimates

Comparable companies

by business, not by industry label
1 more company lists COST as a comparable
Side by side:vs WMT

The weekly

One email a week across every stock we cover: 13F filings, insider trades, earnings and new research. It covers the whole market, not just COST. No account.

About Costco

Costco Wholesale Corporation, alongside its group entities, operates membership-based retail warehouses across a broad international scope, spanning the United States, Puerto Rico, Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Spain, France, Iceland, China, and Taiwan. These outlets provide customers with an extensive array of both well-known branded and proprietary private-label products. Their vast inventory includes household staples, shelf-stable groceries, confectionery, chilled and frozen items, alcoholic beverages, tobacco, and deli selections. Furthermore, the stores stock major appliances, consumer electronics, health and beauty aids, hardware, garden and patio furniture, sporting goods, vehicle tires, toys, seasonal merchandise, office supplies, automotive maintenance products, postage services, event tickets, apparel, small kitchen appliances, home furnishings, domestic textiles, kitchenware, custom-order kiosks, and fine jewelry. Fresh departments offer meat, produce, a service deli, and bakery items. Beyond retail goods, Costco provides in-store amenities such as pharmacies, optical clinics, food courts, hearing aid centers, and tire installation facilities, in addition to managing 636 gas stations. The company also extends its offerings online through business delivery, travel booking, and same-day grocery fulfillment in various countries. As of August 29, 2021, Costco maintained a global network of 815 membership warehouses, with 564 located in the United States and Puerto Rico, 105 in Canada, 39 in Mexico, 30 in Japan, 29 in the United Kingdom, 16 in South Korea, 14 in Taiwan, 12 in Australia, 3 in Spain, and one each in Iceland, France, and China. Digital storefronts facilitate e-commerce operations in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, and Australia. Founded in 1976, the enterprise was originally known as Costco Companies, Inc. before officially adopting the name Costco Wholesale Corporation in August 1999. Its corporate headquarters are situated in Issaquah, Washington.

CEO
Ron Vachris
Headquarters
Issaquah, WA
Employees
355,000
IPO
1986-07-09
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.