https://sweetvaluelab.com/blog Plain-English writing on equity research: how returns are actually measured, what a backtest can and cannot show, and how to read data honestly. en Fri, 16 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://sweetvaluelab.com/blog/anthropic-q3-2026-investor-day https://sweetvaluelab.com/blog/anthropic-q3-2026-investor-day Fri, 16 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMT What attendees of Anthropic's October 14 investor day reported: Q3 revenue of $16.8B, an 11% adjusted margin, $1.70 per compute dollar, a slower pace. https://sweetvaluelab.com/blog/what-is-a-dcf https://sweetvaluelab.com/blog/what-is-a-dcf Thu, 08 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMT One fictional convenience store, valued step by step with a discounted cash flow: three growth assumptions take it from $1,000K to $3,582K. https://sweetvaluelab.com/blog/how-the-10-year-treasury-moves-our-valuations https://sweetvaluelab.com/blog/how-the-10-year-treasury-moves-our-valuations Wed, 07 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMT Every DCF here discounts at the latest 10-year Treasury close. What 98 bp did to model values, what moved the rate, and what the curve's past says. https://sweetvaluelab.com/blog/delta-vs-united-by-the-numbers https://sweetvaluelab.com/blog/delta-vs-united-by-the-numbers Sat, 03 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMT Delta and United earn almost the same margin on a dollar of revenue. The market prices them apart, and United carries twice the leverage, from the 2026 filings. https://sweetvaluelab.com/blog/anthropic-ipo-prospectus-numbers https://sweetvaluelab.com/blog/anthropic-ipo-prospectus-numbers Tue, 29 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMT Anthropic's confidential S-1 as Reuters reported it on Sep 28-29, 2026: the income statement, $518B of compute commitments by partner, and the Founder LLC vote. https://sweetvaluelab.com/blog/how-to-read-a-13f https://sweetvaluelab.com/blog/how-to-read-a-13f Wed, 23 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMT A 13F is a photograph of a portfolio taken on the last day of a quarter and published six weeks later. What it shows, what it never mentions, how to read one. https://sweetvaluelab.com/blog/how-to-read-a-market-sentiment-gauge https://sweetvaluelab.com/blog/how-to-read-a-market-sentiment-gauge Mon, 21 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMT The six factors behind the daily 0–100 score, why each is a two-year percentile, what the S&P 500 did after each band, and how it differs from CNN's index. https://sweetvaluelab.com/blog/how-to-read-market-breadth https://sweetvaluelab.com/blog/how-to-read-market-breadth Mon, 21 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMT What breadth counts, the arithmetic that lets it disagree with the index, how net new highs and the McClellan summation are built, and where to read both here. https://sweetvaluelab.com/blog/how-we-value-a-stock https://sweetvaluelab.com/blog/how-we-value-a-stock Mon, 21 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMT The headline on a valuation page here is the median of twelve models. Which twelve, which of them count for a company, and where the rate comes from. https://sweetvaluelab.com/blog/where-the-numbers-come-from https://sweetvaluelab.com/blog/where-the-numbers-come-from Mon, 21 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMT Every figure here starts in a filing. What EDGAR gives, what the fallback fills in, why each row stores when it became public, and what breaks a table. https://sweetvaluelab.com/blog/tesla-sum-of-the-parts https://sweetvaluelab.com/blog/tesla-sum-of-the-parts Sun, 20 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMT Tesla's three filed businesses at their peers' multiples, three unfiled ones as options. Bear $23, base $97, bull $540 a share, against a $364 price. https://sweetvaluelab.com/blog/how-to-read-a-reverse-dcf https://sweetvaluelab.com/blog/how-to-read-a-reverse-dcf Fri, 18 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMT A step-by-step walk from a stock price to the one number it hides: how fast free cash flow has to grow to justify it, worked through on NVIDIA. https://sweetvaluelab.com/blog/how-to-value-a-bank https://sweetvaluelab.com/blog/how-to-value-a-bank Fri, 18 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMT A step-by-step walk from a bank's balance sheet to the three questions that price it: tangible book, the return on it, whether the equity is real, on JPMorgan. https://sweetvaluelab.com/blog/how-to-value-a-reit https://sweetvaluelab.com/blog/how-to-value-a-reit Fri, 18 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMT A step-by-step walk from a REIT's income statement to the three questions that price it: FFO and P/FFO, yield against the 10-year, the balance sheet. https://sweetvaluelab.com/blog/how-to-value-a-software-company https://sweetvaluelab.com/blog/how-to-value-a-software-company Fri, 18 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMT A step-by-step walk from a software income statement to the three questions that price it: growth plus cash, EV per dollar of revenue, the cost of stock. https://sweetvaluelab.com/blog/total-return-vs-price-return https://sweetvaluelab.com/blog/total-return-vs-price-return Sun, 06 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMT A price chart ignores dividends, so an income fund can look like it went nowhere for a decade. What total return counts instead, and when the gap matters. https://sweetvaluelab.com/blog/what-a-backtest-cannot-tell-you https://sweetvaluelab.com/blog/what-a-backtest-cannot-tell-you Sun, 06 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMT An equity curve answers one question accurately. Here are the five things it quietly assumed on your behalf, and how to read the number it prints.