Bank Health Board

Q: Why P/TBV and ROTCE rather than P/E?

A bank's earnings are a spread on a balance sheet, so what the market pays for tangible equity, set against the return the bank earns on that equity, is the comparison that holds across banks. The line on the board is the multiple a given ROTCE justifies at a chosen cost of equity; the gap to it is described as a premium or a discount, not as a call.

Q: What are the three lights?

Rate: unrealized bond losses (AOCI) exceed 15% of tangible equity while spread income is at least 65% of revenue. Credit: provisions exceed 8% of net revenue or have risen more than 20% two quarters in a row. Capital: CET1 sits less than 100 basis points above its requirement. Each is on or off; there is no combined score.

Q: Where do the numbers come from, and how often do they update?

Quarterly income statements and balance sheets as filed, trailing twelve months, with our own daily closes; CET1 and its requirement are entered by hand from company disclosures. Prices refresh every night and financials when a new quarter is filed. A quarter that fails the row checks is dropped and the rest annualized, and the page says so.

Q: Which banks are on the board?

US-listed bank holding companies: the twenty largest by total assets among the forty largest by market cap, plus the custody banks. Card and consumer-finance lenders are left out because their credit costs follow different thresholds; foreign banks report under other rules and are left out too.

23 US banks on one set of formulas: what the market pays for tangible equity against what the return on it justifies, and three risk lights — unrealized bond losses, credit cost, capital buffer. Ranges and signals, no calls. New to bank numbers? Start with how to value a bank; the formulas are printed below.

How to read this board

Fed funds · last FOMC3.75–4.00%Sep 16, 2026 · +25bp

UST 3m · 2y · 10y · Oct 16, 20264.26 · 4.74 · 5.0910y−2y +0.35 · 10y−3m +0.83

KBE · YTD+4.8%1D +0.1% · 1Y +15.5% · 5Y +15%

KRE · YTD+7.7%1D +0.1% · 1Y +20.1% · 5Y −1%

SPY · YTD+11.9%1D −1.1% · 1Y +15.5% · 5Y +71%

Prices as ofOct 16, 2026Financials TTM through Sep 30, 2026

All 23 banks

colours are thresholds, not a ranking · a row opens the bank's health check

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Cost of equity

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Bank	Price	P/E	P/TBV	Line · r 10%	vs. line	vs. 5y median	ROTCE	ROA	Efficiency	NII share	NII / assets	Credit cost	AOCI / TCE	CET1	Assets $B
Money center
JPMJPMorgan Chase	339.72	14.3	3.18×	2.86×	+11% premium	+37% above	23.0%	1.30%	51.9%	51%	2.02%	6.1%	−6.9%	14.1%	5,092
WFCWells Fargo	83.87	11.7	1.91×	2.03×	−6% discount	+22% above	17.2%	1.02%	63.8%	56%	2.19%	4.7%	−12.4%	10.3%	2,253
BACBank of America	51.23	12.2	1.85×	1.83×	+1% premium	+17% above	15.8%	0.94%	60.2%	52%	1.87%	4.3%	−7.5%	11.2%	3,428
CCitigroup	124.26	12.1	1.53×	1.42×	+8% premium	+107% above	13.0%	0.66%	60.4%	52%	1.65%	10.9%	−27.8%	12.8%	2,941
Super regional
USBU.S. Bancorp	58.73	11.4	2.23×	2.48×	−10% discount	+4% above	20.4%	1.19%	58.6%	57%	2.47%	5.8%	−23.0%	10.8%	703
PNCPNC Financialmerger	217.39	11.6	1.94×	2.08×	−7% discount	+7% above	17.6%	1.26%	58.6%	63%	2.55%	2.9%	−14.4%	9.9%	628
TFCTruist	47.07	11.2	1.44×	1.64×	−12% discount	−15% below	14.4%	1.05%	61.1%	70%	2.62%	6.3%	−16.6%	10.9%	556
HBANHuntingtonmerger	15.27	11.4	1.63×	1.42×	+15% premium	−13% below	12.9%	0.84%	64.3%	72%	2.48%	5.5%	−11.9%	10.0%	284
FITBFifth Thirdmerger	50.37	17.2	2.20×	1.17×	+88% premium	−5% below	11.2%	0.78%	67.0%	67%	2.40%	5.1%	−15.9%	9.9%	300
Regional
RFRegions Financial3q annualized	27.45	11.2	2.22×	2.56×	−13% discount	+4% above	20.9%	1.36%	59.7%	67%	3.11%	2.8%	−30.1%	10.7%	163
WALWestern Alliance3q annualized	74.51	8.5	1.51×	2.14×	−30% discount	−16% below	18.0%	0.98%	56.3%	79%	3.08%	12.6%	−8.3%	11.0%	99
ZIONZions	63.37	8.1	1.42×	2.13×	−33% discount	−3% below	17.9%	1.32%	58.5%	72%	3.03%	1.4%	−28.6%	11.8%	89
EWBCEast West Bancorp	126.88	12.2	2.00×	1.92×	+4% premium	+13% above	16.5%	1.73%	35.1%	88%	3.22%	4.4%	−4.7%	15.4%	83
MTBM&T Bank	215.28	11.2	1.59×	1.76×	−10% discount	−7% below	15.3%	1.37%	53.6%	71%	3.23%	5.2%	0.0%	10.2%	221
KEYKeyCorp	19.99	11.6	1.47×	1.57×	−6% discount	+1% above	14.0%	1.06%	68.7%	69%	2.55%	4.5%	−16.2%	11.2%	191
FCNCAFirst Citizens	2,123.74	11.4	1.25×	1.29×	−3% discount	+5% above	12.0%	0.99%	63.4%	70%	2.84%	3.6%	−1.2%	10.8%	237
PNFPPinnacle Financial3q annualized	94.72	12.0	1.51×	0.87×	+74% premium	−10% below	9.1%	0.67%	69.4%	80%	2.37%	2.2%	−2.6%	9.9%	129
FLGFlagstar	11.08	n/m	0.67×	—	no line	−30% below	0.6%	0.05%	92.9%	88%	2.02%	2.9%	−7.0%	13.2%	88
CFGCitizens Financialdata unavailable	63.36	—	—	—	unavailable	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	10.4%	234
FHNFirst Horizondata unavailable	22.88	—	—	—	unavailable	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	10.5%	78
Custody & trust
BNYBNY	143.30	21.4	5.05×	3.22×	+57% premium	+68% above	25.6%	1.02%	59.3%	24%	0.84%	-0.2%	−22.3%	11.0%	494
NTRSNorthern Trust	165.54	14.2	2.59×	2.28×	+14% premium	+37% above	19.0%	1.25%	67.0%	28%	1.43%	-0.3%	−4.7%	12.2%	179
STTState Street	165.72	13.5	2.33×	2.22×	+5% premium	+20% above	18.6%	0.91%	69.8%	22%	0.83%	0.1%	−8.2%	10.8%	403

23 of 23 shown · net revenue = gross revenue − interest expense · provision ≈ cost of revenue − interest expense · CFG, FHN unavailable this run · prices Oct 16, 2026 · financials TTM through Sep 30, 2026

Value against return

P/TBV on ROTCE; the line is (ROTCE − 3%) ÷ (r − 3%)

Money centerSuper regionalRegionalCustody & trusta light is onsize = log(assets)Hover a point for the bank's figures

Risk quadrant

bond losses vs. spread dependence

Rate light: AOCI/TCE below −15% and NII share at or above 65%. Lit: TFC, FITB, KEY, RF, ZION.

Method and sources

the formulas the numbers use, verbatim

TTM = the four newest filed quarters summed. A quarter failing any of interest income ≥ interest expense, revenue ≥ interest income, NII ≈ interest income − interest expense (±3%), cost of revenue ≥ interest expense (beyond a 3%-of-revenue release) is dropped and the rest annualized (× 4/n); two failures and the bank shows "data unavailable".

Net revenue = revenue − interest expense (FMP's revenue is gross for banks). Provision ≈ cost of revenue − interest expense. TCE = equity − goodwill & intangibles − preferred. TBVPS = TCE ÷ diluted shares. ROTCE = net income ÷ period-end TCE (company figures use average TCE, so these run a little lower). NII / assets is an approximation of net interest margin.

The line: P/TBV = (ROTCE − 3%) ÷ (r − 3%), r switchable 9 / 10 / 11%, g fixed at 3%. "Premium / discount" = current P/TBV ÷ line(r=10%) − 1. It describes two numbers on a day; it is not a call. Five-year history: for each of the last twenty filed quarters, the quarter-end close ÷ that quarter's own TBVPS; the 25th / 50th / 75th percentiles of those twenty, and "vs. 5y median" = current ÷ median − 1. The close is the quarter-end's, not the filing date's, so each point uses a book value published about a month later. Colours (never a sort key): ROTCE ≥18 / 12–18 / <12% · efficiency ≤55 / 55–62 / >62% (custody +10) · credit cost ≤5 / 5–8 / >8% · AOCI/TCE ≥−5 / −5…−15 / <−15% · CET1 buffer ≥200 / 100–200 / <100bp.

Lights are on or off, no score: rate = AOCI/TCE below −15% and NII share at or above 65%; credit = provision above 8% of net revenue or up more than 20% two quarters in a row; capital = CET1 less than 100bp above its requirement. CET1, its requirement and the deposit mix are maintained by hand from company disclosures and left blank when not read from one.

Universe: Scheme A: US-listed bank holding companies, top 20 by total assets among the 40 largest by market cap, plus custody banks by allow-list. Excluded by rule: COF (consumer-finance lender: credit-cost thresholds differ); ALLY (consumer-finance lender: credit-cost thresholds differ); SYF (consumer-finance lender: credit-cost thresholds differ); SOFI (consumer-finance lender: credit-cost thresholds differ); DFS (consumer-finance lender: credit-cost thresholds differ); AXP (consumer-finance lender: credit-cost thresholds differ). Below the cut this run: WTFC, ONB, UMBF, SSB, VLY, COLB, CFR, BOKF, ASB, FNB, PB, OZK, AUB, HWC, CBSH, UBSI, GBCI, ABCB, HOMB, CBC.

This run: RF — Quarter ending 2026-09-30 excluded: interestIncome < interestExpense; netInterestIncome ≠ interestIncome − interestExpense (±3%); costOfRevenue < interestExpense (beyond a 3%-of-revenue release). PNFP — Quarter ending 2025-09-30 excluded: revenue < interestIncome; costOfRevenue < interestExpense (beyond a 3%-of-revenue release). WAL — Quarter ending 2026-06-30 excluded: revenue < interestIncome. Sources: FMP quarterly statements and EOD prices, the US Treasury's daily par yield curve, company disclosures for CET1. Quantitative summary of public data, not investment advice; metrics are approximations, company disclosures prevail.

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Questions

Why P/TBV and ROTCE rather than P/E?

A bank's earnings are a spread on a balance sheet, so what the market pays for tangible equity, set against the return the bank earns on that equity, is the comparison that holds across banks. The line on the board is the multiple a given ROTCE justifies at a chosen cost of equity; the gap to it is described as a premium or a discount, not as a call.

What are the three lights?

Rate: unrealized bond losses (AOCI) exceed 15% of tangible equity while spread income is at least 65% of revenue. Credit: provisions exceed 8% of net revenue or have risen more than 20% two quarters in a row. Capital: CET1 sits less than 100 basis points above its requirement. Each is on or off; there is no combined score.

Where do the numbers come from, and how often do they update?

Quarterly income statements and balance sheets as filed, trailing twelve months, with our own daily closes; CET1 and its requirement are entered by hand from company disclosures. Prices refresh every night and financials when a new quarter is filed. A quarter that fails the row checks is dropped and the rest annualized, and the page says so.

Which banks are on the board?

US-listed bank holding companies: the twenty largest by total assets among the forty largest by market cap, plus the custody banks. Card and consumer-finance lenders are left out because their credit costs follow different thresholds; foreign banks report under other rules and are left out too.

A premium or discount to the line is current P/TBV ÷ the multiple the bank's ROTCE justifies at the chosen cost of equity, minus one. It describes two numbers on a day and is not investment advice. The longer version, with a worked example: How to value a bank: P/TBV, ROTCE and the line.