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Microsoft Corporation — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

MSFT
NASDAQTechnologySoftware - InfrastructureCIK 0000789019microsoft.comAbout MSFT
Last close · Oct 16, 2026529.05−10.39 (−1.93%)
Market cap$3.9T
Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y
479.20
Microsoft closed at $529.05 — overvalued by 10% vs model.
321.85the model's range953.98

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a software company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models
114.78 – 1,038.37
Wall St. target
600.00 12% below
Above model, 1y
86 of 97 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean
Daily close

Dividends

Quarterly · as of Oct 16, 2026
Yield, trailing 12 months
0.69%
Past 2 years
low 0.60%high 1.00%
Dividends per share, a year at a time
$2.24Aug ’21$2.48Aug ’22$2.72Aug ’23$3.00Aug ’24$3.32Aug ’25$3.64TTM
Dividends / free cash flow, FY2026
39.5%
Raised
20 years in a row
Growth, 5 yrs
10.2% a year
Last change
+9.6% · Nov 2025
Every payment, with ex-dates · latest $0.91, paid Sep 10, 2026

Research on MSFT

2 posts
Anthropic's $16.8B quarter: the investor day numbers
What attendees of Anthropic's October 14 investor day reported: Q3 revenue of $16.8B, an 11% adjusted margin, $1.70 per compute dollar, a slower pace.
Allen Yan · · 10 min · 中文
Anthropic's IPO prospectus: the numbers behind the $42B loss
Anthropic's confidential S-1 as Reuters reported it on Sep 28-29, 2026: the income statement, $518B of compute commitments by partner, and the Founder LLC vote.
Allen Yan · · 8 min · 中文
Studied MSFT from its filings? Guest posts are reviewed before they go live.Write about MSFT →

How it is valued

Valued asSoftware
Moderate growth (~16% recent)High profitability (40% net margin)Moderately volatile earnings
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2026 · chosen for software companies
Price / sales
11.8×
Revenue growth
17.8%
Gross margin
67.9%
FCF margin
20.2%
Rule of 40
38.0%
Operating margin
46.8%
On the lists: #4 Largest companies
Full financials

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted
10-15UBS · target675.00
10-15Mizuho Securities · target600.00
10-14Jefferies · target650.00
09-23Stifel · “Buy” from “Hold”upgrade
Ratings, targets and estimates

The weekly

One email a week across every stock we cover: 13F filings, insider trades, earnings and new research. It covers the whole market, not just MSFT. No account.

About Microsoft

Microsoft Corporation is a prominent global technology firm that invents, markets, and provides ongoing assistance for a diverse range of software, digital services, computing devices, and comprehensive solutions. Its operations are organized into three primary divisions: Productivity and Business Processes, Intelligent Cloud, and More Personal Computing. The Productivity and Business Processes segment delivers crucial tools for both enterprises and individual users. This includes the extensive Office suite (comprising Exchange, SharePoint, Microsoft Teams, Office 365 Security and Compliance, Microsoft Viva, and Skype for Business), along with popular consumer offerings like Skype, Outlook.com, OneDrive, and LinkedIn. It also features Dynamics 365, a suite of integrated cloud and on-premises business applications tailored for organizations. The Intelligent Cloud division focuses on sophisticated infrastructure and platform services. Here, Microsoft licenses key products such as SQL Server, Windows Servers, Visual Studio, System Center, and associated Client Access Licenses. It also includes GitHub, a leading platform for developer collaboration and code hosting; Nuance, offering advanced AI solutions for healthcare and businesses; and Azure, its expansive cloud computing platform. This segment further encompasses enterprise support, Microsoft consulting services, and Nuance professional services, assisting clients with the development, deployment, and management of Microsoft's server and desktop technologies, alongside offering product training and certification. Finally, the More Personal Computing segment covers a broad spectrum of consumer and commercial computing experiences. It generates revenue through Windows operating system licensing, including agreements with original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), non-volume licensing, and various Windows Commercial offerings (such as volume licensing and cloud services), as well as patent licensing and Windows Internet of Things (IoT). This division also supplies its own hardware, including Surface devices, PC accessories, and gaming/entertainment consoles. Its Gaming portfolio features Xbox hardware, content, and subscription services, in addition to video games and royalties from third-party titles. Furthermore, it manages search services like Bing and Microsoft's advertising platforms. Microsoft distributes its extensive product line via numerous channels, including original equipment manufacturers, wholesale distributors, and various resellers, complementing direct sales through digital marketplaces, its own online storefronts, and physical retail outlets. The company, established in 1975, maintains its headquarters in Redmond, Washington.

CEO
Satya Nadella
Headquarters
Redmond, WA
Employees
223,000
IPO
1986-03-13
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.