Treasury Yields

Where U.S. Treasury yields are, why they moved, what the curve's shape has meant before, and what the 10-year does to every valuation on this site. Daily from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, 1990 to today. The long version, with what 98 bp did to our model values, is how the 10-year Treasury moves every valuation here.

How the 10-year moves valuations

10-year Treasury · par yield at the closeOct 16, 2026

5.09%

+106 bp in twelve months.

69th percentile since 1990100th percentile since 2008+8 bp in a month

Risk-free rate in every DCF and DDM here: 5.09%
+ equity risk premium × beta (reviewed Sep 1, 2026): 4.14% × β
Cost of equity, beta 1.0: 9.23%

The curve

1 month to 30 years

10Y 5.09% · a year ago 4.03% · +106 bp

Oct 16, 2026Oct 14, 2025Shape: normal · 10Y − 3M +83 bp

Maturity	1M	3M	6M	1Y	2Y	3Y	5Y	7Y	10Y	20Y	30Y
Yield	4.12	4.26	4.34	4.46	4.74	4.82	4.89	4.98	5.09	5.47	5.43
1 week	−2	+3	+4	+2	−1	−3	−10	−13	−13	−17	−17
1 month	+16	+12	+12	+1	0	0	+3	+4	+8	+8	+8
1 year	−7	+24	+54	+88	+126	+135	+129	+119	+106	+88	+81
Percentile, 1990–*	83	64	65	67	71	72	70	69	69	74	66
Percentile, 2008–	85	85	88	90	96	99	100	100	100	100	100

Yields in percent; changes in basis points. *The 1-month bill starts in Jul 2001.

01 · DRIVERS

Why did yields rise?

Mostly real yields. Of the 10-year's +106 bp move over the past year, +101 bp came from the real (TIPS) yield and +5 bp from expected inflation. The 2-year moved +126 bp over the same year, so this was not only the long end.

10-year nominal, real and the gap between

Week of Oct 16, 2026 · 10Y 5.09% · real 2.74% · breakeven 2.35%

10Y nominal10Y real (TIPS)Breakeven inflation

The move, split in two

Past 3 months+54 bp

+43 bp+11 bp

+43 bp real · +11 bp breakeven

Past 12 months+106 bp

+101 bp

+101 bp real · +5 bp breakeven

Real yieldBreakeven inflation

10Y real yield: 2.74%
Breakeven inflation: 2.35%

The past year, four maturities

daily close

Oct 16, 2026 · 30Y 5.43% · 10Y 5.09% · 2Y 4.74% · 3M 4.26%

30Y10Y2Y3M

How the curve moved

level vs slope, bp

1 month2Y ±0 bp · 10Y +8 bpBear steepener

3 months2Y +56 bp · 10Y +54 bpBear parallel

1 year2Y +126 bp · 10Y +106 bpBear flattener

Nov 2025month by month · dark = yields upOct 2026

02 · SHAPE

What is the curve saying?

It slopes upward. 10Y − 3M is +83 bp, against +1 bp a year ago. The longest inversion since 1990 ran 535 trading days and ended on Dec 12, 2024; no recession has been dated since.

10Y − 3M+83 bpa year ago +1 bp · The New York Fed's recession-model spread

10Y − 2Y+35 bpa year ago +55 bp · The one most news coverage quotes

30Y − 10Y+34 bpa year ago +59 bp · How much more the long bond pays

Spread history

weekly · NBER recessions shaded

Week of Oct 16, 2026 · 10Y − 3M +83 bp · 3M 4.26% · 2Y 4.74% · 10Y 5.09%

10Y − 3M, bpInvertedNBER recession

Every inversion since 1990

10Y − 3M below zero for 20+ trading days; gaps of 20 days or fewer merged

Inverted from	Back above zero	Days inverted	Deepest	Next NBER recession	Months after start
Jul 7, 2000	Feb 12, 2001	134	−95 bp	Mar 2001	8
Jul 17, 2006	May 30, 2007	218	−64 bp	Dec 2007	17
May 13, 2019	Oct 11, 2019	99	−52 bp	Feb 2020	9
Oct 18, 2022	Dec 13, 2024	535	−189 bp	none so far	—
Feb 26, 2025 intermittent	Sep 16, 2025	85	−27 bp	none so far	—

5 cases since 1990. The table states what followed each one; it does not estimate a probability.

03 · VALUATIONS

What does it do to the valuations here?

Every cash-flow model here discounts at 5.09% plus beta × 4.14%. When the risk-free rate went from 4.30% to 5.28%, the median model value per stock moved −4.6%. The earnings yield of our 478 stocks sits 114 bp below the 10-year.

What +98 bp in the risk-free rate did

508 stocks, measured Oct 5, 2026

DCF, growth exit, 5y / 10y−16%

Dividend discount (DDM)−15%

Earnings power value−12%

DCF, EBITDA exit, 10y−7%

DCF, EBITDA exit, 5y−4%

Multiples and sector models0%

Headline valuethe median of the weighted models, the headline when this was measured−4.6%

The same inputs valued twice, rf 4.30% and 5.28%, the equity risk premium held. Multiples use no discount rate, which is why the headline moves far less than any single cash-flow model.

Earnings yield minus the 10-year

−114 bp

Trailing earnings of 3.95% of market value against 5.09% on the 10-year: the 3rd percentile of 58 month-ends since May 2020 (median −30 bp). Against the real yield it is +121 bp.

Oct 2026 · EY 3.95% · 10Y 5.09% · gap −114 bp

Earnings yield10Y10Y real

Sectors against the 10-year

last 6 months · average move per +100 bp in the 10-year

Consumer Cyclical53 stocks · −3.4% in 6 months−16%

Technology94 stocks · +21.7% in 6 months−12.3%

Basic Materials24 stocks · −7.8% in 6 months−12%

Industrials74 stocks · −1.3% in 6 months−10.9%

Real Estate30 stocks · −3% in 6 months−9.4%

Communication Services21 stocks · −8.1% in 6 months−8.8%

Healthcare59 stocks · +22.5% in 6 months−7.9%

Consumer Defensive34 stocks · +7.3% in 6 months−6.4%

Financial Services71 stocks · +6.7% in 6 months−6.4%

Utilities31 stocks · −7.9% in 6 months−5.4%

Energy22 stocks · +15.9% in 6 months+10.8%

Each sector's equal-weight daily return regressed on the daily change in the 10-year over the last 126 trading days. A description of the half-year, not a forecast.

04 · HISTORY

How unusual is this?

A rise of 100 bp or more inside a year has happened 16 times since 1990. This one is +134 bp from the Feb 2026 low; 2022 (+290 bp) and 1994 (+260 bp) were the largest.

Every 100 bp rise in a year, since 1990

S&P 500 via SPY from 2006

Low	High	Rise	S&P, low→high	Next 12 mo
Feb 2026 3.97%	now 5.31%	+134 bp	+13.0%	…
Sep 2024 3.63%	Jan 2025 4.79%	+116 bp	+3.3%	+19.3%
Dec 2021 1.35%	Oct 2022 4.25%	+290 bp	−16.4%	+11.8%
Aug 2020 0.52%	Mar 2021 1.74%	+122 bp	+18.0%	+14.1%
Sep 2017 2.05%	May 2018 3.11%	+106 bp	+10.2%	+5.1%
Jul 2016 1.37%	Mar 2017 2.62%	+125 bp	+11.8%	+16.4%
Aug 2012 1.57%	Sep 2013 2.98%	+141 bp	+17.6%	+21.2%
Oct 2010 2.41%	Feb 2011 3.75%	+134 bp	+13.8%	+2.0%
Dec 2008 2.08%	Jun 2009 3.98%	+190 bp	+5.7%	+15.6%
Jun 2005 3.90%	Jun 2006 5.25%	+135 bp	—	—
Jun 2003 3.13%	Jun 2004 4.89%	+176 bp	—	—
Nov 2001 4.22%	Apr 2002 5.44%	+122 bp	—	—
Jan 1999 4.64%	Jan 2000 6.79%	+215 bp	—	—
Jan 1996 5.53%	Jul 1996 7.06%	+153 bp	—	—
Oct 1993 5.26%	Oct 1994 7.86%	+260 bp	—	—
Dec 1991 6.71%	Mar 1992 7.71%	+100 bp	—	—

The 10-year against its own 12-month low; SPY price return, dividends excluded.

Rate volatility

10Y, 20-day, bp a year

Oct 16, 2026 · 89 bp a year

Now 89 bp a year, the 61st percentile since 1990.

How this page is built

Daily par yields for every maturity since 1990 and the real (TIPS) curve since 2003, from the U.S. Department of the Treasury. A percentile is the share of trading days in the window with a lower close. An inversion needs 20 trading days below zero; a move is parallel when the slope changed by under 5 bp. Recession dates are the NBER's.

How our valuations use the 10-year →

Questions

Why does a DCF care about the 10-year Treasury?

A DCF discounts future cash flows at a cost of capital that starts from a risk-free rate. This site uses the latest 10-year Treasury close for it, so a higher 10-year lowers every cash-flow model's value the next morning.

Why 10Y − 3M and not 10Y − 2Y?

The New York Fed's recession model uses the 10-year minus 3-month spread; most news coverage quotes 10Y − 2Y. Both are on the spread chart, one click apart.

What is breakeven inflation?

The nominal 10-year yield minus the 10-year TIPS (real) yield: the inflation rate at which the two bonds would pay the same. A rise in the 10-year can come from either side, and the page splits it.

Does an inverted curve mean a recession is coming?

The page lists every 10Y − 3M inversion since 1990 and what followed each one. There are five, and a handful of cases cannot support a probability, so the page states the record and nothing more.

Where do the yields come from, and how often do they update?

From the U.S. Department of the Treasury's daily par yield curves, nominal since 1990 and real since 2003, downloaded once a day after the Treasury publishes the close.

The weekly

The week's 13F filings, insider trades and earnings, plus new research on the site. One email a week, no account.

Yields describe the Treasury market on one day and are not investment advice. Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates and Daily Treasury Par Real Yield Curve Rates. Recession dates: National Bureau of Economic Research.