FIRE Calculator
How long until work is optional? This runs your savings plan through 1,000 Monte Carlo paths and shows the whole distribution of years to financial independence — not the single average number every other calculator stops at. Free, no sign-up, nothing leaves your browser.
Your inputs
Three numbers decide almost everything. The assumptions below are secondary.
Expected case · constant 10.0% return
You need $1,500,000 in today's money — 25× a year of spending at a 4.0% withdrawal rate. Getting there means a balance of about $3.1M in the dollars of that year.
Monte Carlo · 1,000 random paths
Simulating in your browser…
How this works
Two answers, not one
The expected case compounds at a fixed return, the way most calculators work. The Monte Carlo runs 1,000 paths that sample each month's return at random around the same average. The gap between them is the point of the page.
What the target means
Financial independence here is your target spend times twelve, divided by the withdrawal rate — 25× a year of spending at 4%. The target is stated in today's money and grows with inflation inside the simulation, so it keeps its purchasing power.
What it leaves out
No taxes, no fees, no Social Security or pension, no salary growth, and no mean reversion. Returns are drawn independently each month, which is harsher than history has actually been over long horizons.
Why the numbers move
Every input change reruns the simulation, and random sampling means the figures wobble by a few percent between runs. Read the shape, not the last decimal. Nothing you type is sent anywhere — the whole calculation happens in your browser.
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Questions
What is a FIRE number?
The portfolio that covers your spending indefinitely: a year of expenses divided by your withdrawal rate. At the 4% rule that is 25 times a year of spending — $60,000 a year means $1.5 million.
Why show a range instead of one number?
Because a single average hides the thing that decides your plan. Compounding at a fixed return says one number; sampling real-looking volatility says the answer is a spread, and that spread is often fifteen years wide on the same inputs.
Is the 4% rule still safe?
It was derived from US history over 30-year retirements, and it is a starting point rather than a law. Lower the withdrawal rate here and watch the target and the survival rate move — a longer retirement or a worse decade both argue for something below 4%.
What is sequence-of-returns risk?
The order returns arrive in. A bad first few years of retirement forces you to sell while prices are down, and the portfolio may never recover even if the average return over the whole period was fine. It is why this page tests the withdrawal phase separately.
Does it account for taxes, fees or Social Security?
No. Returns are gross and no pension, benefit or salary growth is modelled. Treat the output as the shape of the problem, not a financial plan.
Do I need an account, and where does my data go?
No account, and nowhere. The whole simulation runs in your browser; the only thing that leaves it is the URL, if you choose to share it.
For personal planning and education only. This is not investment advice, and it is not a forecast.