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The Kroger Co. — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

KR
NYSEConsumer DefensiveGrocery StoresCIK 0000056873thekrogerco.comAbout KR
Last close · Oct 16, 202663.63+0.92 (+1.47%)
Market cap$37.6B
Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y
40.63
Kroger closed at $63.63 — overvalued by 57% vs model.
17.31the model's range127.84

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a mature, steady company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models
28.08 – 129.70
Wall St. target
72.00 12% below
Above model, 1y
16 of 20 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean
Daily close

Dividends

Quarterly · as of Oct 16, 2026
Yield, trailing 12 months
2.26%
Past 2 years
low 1.71%high 2.57%
Dividends per share, a year at a time
$0.75Aug ’21$0.89Aug ’22$1.07Aug ’23$1.19Aug ’24$1.31Aug ’25$1.44TTM
Dividends / free cash flow, FY2026
25.6%
Raised
19 years in a row
Growth, 5 yrs
13.9% a year
Last change
+11.4% · Aug 2026
Every payment, with ex-dates · latest $0.39, paid Sep 1, 2026

Research on KR

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How it is valued

Valued asMature & stable
Revenue declining (~-1% recent)Thin margins (0.7% net margin)Pays dividendsHighly cyclical earningsHigh leverage (D/E 2.7x)Strong FCF yield (9.2%)
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2026 · chosen for mature companies
P/E
41.3×
EV / EBITDA
8.7×
FCF yield
8.1%
Dividend yield, TTM
2.26%
Beta
0.41
Cost of capital (WACC)
6.62%
Full financials

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted
10-07BNP Paribas · target72.00
09-29Melius Research · target80.00
09-14Telsey Advisory · target75.00
02-25Wells Fargo · “Equal Weight” from “Overweight”downgrade
Ratings, targets and estimates

Comparable companies

by business, not by industry label

The weekly

One email a week across every stock we cover: 13F filings, insider trades, earnings and new research. It covers the whole market, not just KR. No account.

About Kroger

The Kroger Co. functions as a significant retail entity throughout the United States, encompassing a varied collection of store formats. Its operations include integrated food and drug stores, which stock a broad range of products from natural and organic sections to pharmacies, general merchandise, pet centers, fresh seafood, and organic produce. The company also runs multi-department stores that broaden their offerings to include apparel, home fashion and furnishings, outdoor living goods, electronics, automotive products, and toys. Furthermore, Kroger's marketplace stores blend comprehensive grocery services, pharmacies, health and beauty care, and perishable items with general merchandise such as clothing and household goods. Its price impact warehouse stores, on the other hand, concentrate on providing groceries, health and beauty essentials, meat, dairy, baked goods, and fresh produce at competitive prices. Beyond its retail presence, Kroger is involved in manufacturing and processing food products, which it then sells through its own supermarkets and online platforms. The company also operates 1,613 fuel centers, selling fuel to customers. As of January 29, 2022, The Kroger Co. managed 2,726 supermarkets, operating under numerous brand names across 35 states and the District of Columbia. Established in 1883, the company is headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio.

CEO
Gregory S. Foran
Headquarters
Cincinnati, OH
Employees
403,000
IPO
1977-01-02
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.