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Casey's General Stores, Inc. — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

CASY
NASDAQConsumer CyclicalSpecialty RetailCIK 0000726958caseys.comAbout CASY
Last close · Oct 16, 2026689.22+15.59 (+2.31%)
Market cap$25.5B
Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y
457.39
Casey's closed at $689.22 — overvalued by 51% vs model.
273.10the model's range1,279.04

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for mature & stable — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models
60.21 – 531.35
Wall St. target
750.00 8% below
Above model, 1y
16 of 20 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean
Daily close

Dividends

Quarterly · as of Oct 16, 2026
Yield, trailing 12 months
0.34%
Past 2 years
low 0.25%high 0.51%
Dividends per share, a year at a time
$1.34Jul ’21$1.43Jul ’22$1.57Jul ’23$1.79Aug ’24$2.07Aug ’25$2.36TTM
Dividends / free cash flow, FY2026
11.5%
Raised
26 years in a row
Growth, 5 yrs
12.0% a year
Last change
+14.0% · Jul 2026
Every payment, with ex-dates · latest $0.65, paid Aug 14, 2026

Research on CASY

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How it is valued

Valued asMature & Stable
Low/slowing growth (~9% recent)Thin margins (4.1% net margin)Highly cyclical earnings
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2026
P/E
36.0×
EV / EBITDA
19.7×
FCF yield
2.8%
Dividend yield, TTM
0.34%
Beta
0.58
Cost of capital (WACC)
7.73%
Full financials

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted
10-15RBC Capital · “Outperform” from “Sector Perform”upgrade
10-15RBC Capital · target825.00
09-11Evercore ISI · target775.00
09-10Raymond James · “Outperform” from “Market Perform”upgrade
Ratings, targets and estimates

Comparable companies

by business, not by industry label

The weekly

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About Casey's

Casey's General Stores, Inc. engages in the provision of management and operation of convenience stores and gasoline stations. It provides self-service gasoline, a wide selection of grocery items, and an array of freshly prepared food items. The firm offers food, beverages, tobacco products, health and beauty aids, automotive products, and other non-food items. The company was founded by Donald F. Lamberti in 1968 and is headquartered in Ankeny, IA.

CEO
Darren Rebelez
Headquarters
Ankeny, IA
Employees
49,848
IPO
1983-10-20
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.