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Tractor Supply Company — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

TSCO
NASDAQConsumer CyclicalSpecialty RetailCIK 0000916365tractorsupply.comAbout TSCO
Last close · Oct 16, 202633.16−0.21 (−0.63%)
Market cap$17.3B
Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y
39.11
Tractor Supply closed at $33.16 — undervalued by 15% vs model.
24.46the model's range97.00

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for dividend payer — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models
15.48 – 64.01
Wall St. target
38.00 13% below
Below model, 1y
20 of 20 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean
Daily close

Dividends

Quarterly · as of Oct 16, 2026
Yield, trailing 12 months
2.86%
Past 2 years
low 1.43%high 3.23%
Dividends per share, a year at a time
$0.39Aug ’21$0.66Aug ’22$0.80Aug ’23$0.87Aug ’24$0.91Aug ’25$0.95TTM
Dividends / free cash flow, FY2025
65.9%
Raised
15+ years in a row
Growth, 5 yrs
19.4% a year
Last change
+4.3% · Feb 2026
Every payment, with ex-dates · latest $0.24, paid Sep 8, 2026

Research on TSCO

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How it is valued

Valued asDividend Payer
Low/slowing growth (~3% recent)Moderate margins (7% net margin)Pays dividendsModerately volatile earnings
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2025
P/E
16.1×
EV / EBITDA
9.6×
FCF yield
4.2%
Dividend yield, TTM
2.86%
Beta
0.51
Cost of capital (WACC)
7.52%
Full financials

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted
10-08D.A. Davidson · target36.00
07-28Argus Research · target41.00
07-24Telsey Advisory · target38.00
07-09Mizuho · “Neutral” from “Outperform”downgrade
Ratings, targets and estimates

Comparable companies

by business, not by industry label
1 more company lists TSCO as a comparable

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One email a week across every stock we cover: 13F filings, insider trades, earnings and new research. It covers the whole market, not just TSCO. No account.

About Tractor Supply

Tractor Supply Company functions as a prominent retailer, catering to the rural lifestyle demographic throughout the United States. Its extensive product catalog encompasses items crucial for the health, well-being, development, and enclosure of equine, livestock, pets, and small animals. Additionally, it stocks a variety of hardware, truck, towing, and tool supplies. Shoppers can also find seasonal goods like heating solutions, gardening equipment, power tools, novelty gifts, and children's toys, alongside workwear, casual apparel, footwear, and essential maintenance products designed for agricultural and general rural applications. These offerings are made available under a diverse portfolio of private label and proprietary brands, including 4health, Producer's Pride, American Farmworks, Red Shed, Bit & Bridle, Redstone, Blue Mountain, Retriever, C.E. Schmidt, Ridgecut, Countyline, Royal Wing, Dumor, Strive, Groundwork, Traveller, Huskee, Treeline, JobSmart, TSC Tractor Supply Co, Paws & Claws, and Untamed. Data from June 25, 2022, indicates the company's retail footprint included 2,016 Tractor Supply outlets spanning 49 states, complemented by 178 Petsense locations across 23 states. Its physical retail presence includes stores operating under the banners of Tractor Supply Company, Del's Feed & Farm Supply, and Petsense, while its digital storefronts are accessible via TractorSupply.com and Petsense.com. The primary customer base comprises recreational farmers, ranchers, and other individuals with similar needs. Established in 1938, the corporation maintains its corporate headquarters in Brentwood, Tennessee.

CEO
Harry A. Lawton
Headquarters
Brentwood, TN
Employees
52,000
IPO
1994-02-17
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.