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Dollar Tree, Inc. — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

DLTR
NASDAQConsumer DefensiveDiscount StoresCIK 0000935703dollartree.comAbout DLTR
Last close · Oct 16, 2026124.18−0.23 (−0.18%)
Market cap$23.3B
Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y
120.61
Dollar Tree closed at $124.18 — overvalued by 3% vs model.
77.38the model's range291.65

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a mature, steady company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models
15.73 – 234.72
Wall St. target
139.00 11% below
Above model, 1y
7 of 20 days

Price and model value

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How it is valued

Valued asMature & stable
Revenue declining (~-20% recent)Moderate margins (7% net margin)Highly cyclical earnings
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2026 · chosen for mature companies
P/E
20.0×
EV / EBITDA
11.1×
FCF yield
5.5%
Dividend yield, TTM
0.00%
Beta
0.72
Cost of capital (WACC)
8.01%
Full financials

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted
10-01Loop Capital · “Buy” from “Hold”upgrade
10-01Loop Capital Markets · target140.00
09-29Evercore ISI · target135.00
09-04Barclays · target160.00
Ratings, targets and estimates

Comparable companies

by business, not by industry label
1 more company lists DLTR as a comparable
Side by side:vs DG

The weekly

One email a week across every stock we cover: 13F filings, insider trades, earnings and new research. It covers the whole market, not just DLTR. No account.

About Dollar Tree

Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) operates as a leading discount retailer, managing its extensive operations through two principal divisions: Dollar Tree and Family Dollar. The Dollar Tree segment distinguishes itself by offering all its merchandise at a consistent price of $1.25. Its product range is broad, encompassing essential consumables like confectionery, various food items, health and personal care products, household cleaning chemicals, paper goods, and frozen or refrigerated foods. Beyond these daily necessities, customers can find a diverse selection of general merchandise, including toys, resilient housewares, gifts, stationery, party essentials, greeting cards, softline apparel, and arts and crafts supplies. The segment also prominently features seasonal items for holidays such as Christmas, Easter, Halloween, and Valentine's Day. By January 29, 2022, this division maintained a substantial presence with 8,061 retail locations across its Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada brands, supported by 15 distribution centers in the U.S. and an additional two in Canada. Conversely, the Family Dollar segment functions as a general merchandise discount chain with varying prices. Its inventory is comprehensive, covering a wide array of consumable goods such as groceries, beverages, tobacco, personal care and health products, household chemicals, paper products, hardware, automotive accessories, diapers, batteries, and pet food and supplies. Additionally, the segment provides home products, which include housewares, home décor, giftware, and domestics like bedding and towels. Shoppers can also find apparel and accessories, encompassing clothing, fashion items, and footwear. Seasonal and electronics merchandise, ranging from holiday-specific goods to pre-paid cellular phones and services, along with stationery, school supplies, and toys, are also key offerings. As of January 29, 2022, the Family Dollar brand operated 8,016 stores and was supported by 11 distribution centers. Founded in 1986, Dollar Tree, Inc. is headquartered in Chesapeake, Virginia.

CEO
Michael C. Creedon Jr.
Headquarters
Chesapeake, VA
Employees
150,000
IPO
1995-03-07
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.