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Ulta Beauty, Inc. — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

ULTA
NASDAQConsumer CyclicalSpecialty RetailCIK 0001403568ulta.comAbout ULTA
Last close · Oct 16, 2026592.94−16.30 (−2.68%)
Market cap$25.4B
Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y
505.76
Ulta Beauty closed at $592.94 — overvalued by 17% vs model.
350.14the model's range993.69

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for mature & stable — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models
279.06 – 557.23
Wall St. target
647.50 8% below
Above model, 1y
10 of 20 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean
Daily close

Research on ULTA

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How it is valued

Valued asMature & Stable
Low/slowing growth (~5% recent)Moderate margins (9% net margin)Highly cyclical earnings
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2026
P/E
23.1×
EV / EBITDA
13.6×
FCF yield
4.0%
Dividend yield, TTM
0.00%
Beta
0.84
Cost of capital (WACC)
8.79%
Full financials

Superinvestors

13F

None of the tracked managers reported a position in their latest 13F.

All 0 holders

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted
09-15Wells Fargo · “Equal Weight” from “Underweight”upgrade
09-15Wells Fargo · target525.00
09-08BMO Capital · target580.00
08-28UBS · target631.00
Ratings, targets and estimates

The weekly

One email a week across every stock we cover: 13F filings, insider trades, earnings and new research. It covers the whole market, not just ULTA. No account.

About Ulta Beauty

Ulta Beauty, Inc. functions as a prominent beauty product retailer throughout the United States. Its physical locations feature a broad assortment of goods, including cosmetics, perfumes, skincare, haircare items, bath and body essentials, and professional salon styling instruments. Additionally, they provide a comprehensive suite of salon services, encompassing hair, skin, makeup, brow, and nail treatments. The company further offers its proprietary label products, such as the Ulta Beauty Collection for cosmetics, skincare, and bath items, alongside other Ulta Beauty branded merchandise and gift options. As of March 10, 2022, Ulta Beauty operated 1,308 retail stores across all 50 U.S. states. Its products are also available for purchase via its website, ulta.com, and through its mobile applications. Incorporated in 1990, the enterprise was initially known as Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc., before officially changing its name to Ulta Beauty, Inc. in January 2017. Its corporate base is located in Bolingbrook, Illinois.

CEO
Kecia L. Steelman
Headquarters
Bolingbrook, IL
Employees
65,000
IPO
2007-10-25
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.