KeyCorp — bank health check

KEY

RegionalAssets $191.3B4-quarter TTM

Close · Oct 16, 202619.99P/E 11.6 · yield 4.1%

P/TBV1.47×TBVPS 13.58

Line · r 10%1.57×range 1.37–1.83×

−6% discountP/TBV ÷ line − 1

Fed funds · last FOMC3.75–4.00%Sep 16, 2026 · +25bp

UST 3m · 2y · 10y · Oct 16, 20264.26 · 4.74 · 5.0910y−2y +0.35 · 10y−3m +0.83

KBE · YTD+4.8%1D +0.1% · 1Y +15.5% · 5Y +15%

KRE · YTD+7.7%1D +0.1% · 1Y +20.1% · 5Y −1%

SPY · YTD+11.9%1D −1.1% · 1Y +15.5% · 5Y +71%

Prices as ofOct 16, 2026Financials TTM through Sep 30, 2026

Valuation range

the line at three costs of equity

r 11% · 1.37×r 9% · 1.83×now 1.47×

0.0×1.0×2.0×3.0×4.0×

At r = 10% the line gives 1.57× for a 14.0% ROTCE; the market pays 1.47×, a 6% discount to the line.

Where it has traded

quarter-end P/TBV · 20 quarters · Sep 30, 2021 → Jun 30, 2026

Five-year median 1.46×, middle half 1.34–1.67×, range 1.01–2.01×. Now 1.47×: +1% above its own median, higher than 50% of those quarters.Each quarter priced at its own TBVPS · the band is the 25th–75th percentile

Where the money goes

TTM through Jun 30, 2026 · $B

assets $191.3B ÷ TCE $14.5B = 13.2× leverage · ROA 1.06% × 13.2 = ROTCE 14.0%

Revenue mix

NII vs. non-interest income · Regional peers (10)

KEY69 / 31

Tier average77 / 23

Efficiency 68.7% vs. tier 61.1% · ROTCE 14.0% vs. 13.8% · credit cost 4.5% vs. 4.4% · AOCI/TCE −16.2% vs. −10.3%.

Quarter by quarter

8 quarters · Sep 30, 2024 → Jun 30, 2026 · a gap is a dropped quarter

NII, $B1.3

Provision, $B0.00

Efficiency104.7%

AOCI / TCE−16.2%

Risk lights

on / off, no score

Rateon

Unrealized bond losses are 16.2% of tangible equity and 69% of revenue is spread income

Creditoff

Off. Provision 4.5% of net revenue (light at 8%); not up more than 20% two quarters in a row.

Capitaloff

Off. CET1 11.2% is 350bp above the 7.7% requirement.

The eight numbers

colour = threshold

ROTCE: 14.0%
P/TBV · line r 10%: 1.47× · 1.57×
Efficiency: 68.7%
CET1 · requirement: 11.2% · 7.7%
NII / assets (≈ NIM): 2.55%
Credit cost: 4.5%
NII share · rate sensitivity: 69% · high
AOCI / TCE: −16.2%
P/E · yield · payout: 11.6 · 4.1% · 48%
ROA · leverage: 1.06% · 13.2×
Assets · TCE: $191.3B · $14.5B

Thresholds: ROTCE ≥18% · efficiency ≤55% · credit cost ≤5% · AOCI/TCE ≥-5% are green. Full method → · How to value a bank →

Hand-maintained fields

as of Jun 30, 2026

CET1: 11.2%
CET1 requirement (incl. SCB): 7.7%
Net charge-off rate: not available
Non-interest-bearing deposits: not available
Uninsured deposits: not available

Source

Data quality this run

4-quarter TTM

Four usable quarters; nothing dropped or annualized.

Prices Oct 16, 2026 · financials TTM through Sep 30, 2026.