Valuation range the line at three costs of equity r 11% · 2.50× r 9% · 3.34× now 3.18×
0.0× 1.0× 2.0× 3.0× 4.0×
At r = 10% the line gives 2.86× for a 23.0% ROTCE; the market pays 3.18×, a 11% premium to the line .
Where it has traded quarter-end P/TBV · 20 quarters · Dec 31, 2021 → Sep 30, 2026 1.00× 1.63× 2.25× 2.88× 3.50× 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2021-12-31 · 2.33× (close 158.35 · TBVPS 67.94) 2022-03-31 · 2.09× (close 136.32 · TBVPS 65.27) 2022-06-30 · 1.72× (close 112.61 · TBVPS 65.38) 2022-09-30 · 1.59× (close 104.50 · TBVPS 65.55) 2022-12-31 · 1.95× (close 134.10 · TBVPS 68.78) 2023-03-31 · 1.81× (close 130.31 · TBVPS 71.85) 2023-06-30 · 1.94× (close 145.44 · TBVPS 74.92) 2023-09-30 · 1.89× (close 145.02 · TBVPS 76.76) 2023-12-31 · 2.10× (close 170.10 · TBVPS 80.88) 2024-03-31 · 2.41× (close 200.30 · TBVPS 83.21) 2024-06-30 · 2.32× (close 202.26 · TBVPS 87.09) 2024-09-30 · 2.33× (close 210.86 · TBVPS 90.63) 2024-12-31 · 2.62× (close 239.71 · TBVPS 91.52) 2025-03-31 · 2.60× (close 245.30 · TBVPS 94.48) 2025-06-30 · 2.97× (close 289.91 · TBVPS 97.51) 2025-09-30 · 3.20× (close 315.43 · TBVPS 98.70) 2025-12-31 · 3.24× (close 322.22 · TBVPS 99.49) 2026-03-31 · 2.94× (close 294.16 · TBVPS 100.12) 2026-06-30 · 3.16× (close 327.33 · TBVPS 103.54) 2026-09-30 · 3.10× (close 330.83 · TBVPS 106.77) p75 2.95× med 2.33× p25 1.95× now 3.18× Five-year median 2.33×, middle half 1.95–2.95×, range 1.59–3.24×. Now 3.18×: +37% above its own median, higher than 90% of those quarters. Each quarter priced at its own TBVPS · the band is the 25th–75th percentile
Where the money goes TTM through Sep 30, 2026 · $B 0 50 100 150 200 Interest income: 201.7 $B 201.7 Interest income Interest expense: −98.8 $B −98.8 Interest expense NII: 102.9 $B 102.9 NII Non-interest income: 100.2 $B 100.2 Non-interest income Net revenue: 203.2 $B 203.2 Net revenue Operating expenses: −105.4 $B −105.4 Operating expenses Provision: −12.4 $B −12.4 Provision Pre-tax: 85.3 $B 85.3 Pre-tax Tax: −19.3 $B −19.3 Tax Net income: 66.0 $B 66.0 Net income
assets $5.1T ÷ TCE $286.5B = 17.8× leverage · ROA 1.30% × 17.8 = ROTCE 23.0%
Revenue mix NII vs. non-interest income · Money center peers (3) JPM 51 / 49
Tier average 54 / 46
Efficiency 51.9% vs. tier 61.5% · ROTCE 23.0% vs. 15.3% · credit cost 6.1% vs. 6.6% · AOCI/TCE −6.9% vs. −15.9%.
Quarter by quarter 8 quarters · Dec 31, 2024 → Sep 30, 2026 · a gap is a dropped quarter