Valuation range the line at three costs of equity r 11% · 1.87× r 9% · 2.50× now 1.51×
0.0× 1.0× 2.0× 3.0× 4.0×
At r = 10% the line gives 2.14× for a 18.0% ROTCE; the market pays 1.51×, a 30% discount to the line . Below the range even at r = 11%.
Where it has traded quarter-end P/TBV · 20 quarters · Sep 30, 2021 → Jun 30, 2026 0.50× 1.50× 2.50× 3.50× 4.50× 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2021-09-30 · 3.76× (close 108.82 · TBVPS 28.93) 2021-12-31 · 3.37× (close 107.65 · TBVPS 31.92) 2022-03-31 · 2.88× (close 82.82 · TBVPS 28.79) 2022-06-30 · 2.42× (close 70.60 · TBVPS 29.18) 2022-09-30 · 2.36× (close 65.74 · TBVPS 27.81) 2022-12-31 · 2.00× (close 59.56 · TBVPS 29.82) 2023-03-31 · 1.06× (close 35.54 · TBVPS 33.60) 2023-06-30 · 1.06× (close 36.47 · TBVPS 34.25) 2023-09-30 · 1.41× (close 45.97 · TBVPS 32.68) 2023-12-31 · 1.79× (close 65.79 · TBVPS 36.71) 2024-03-31 · 1.73× (close 64.19 · TBVPS 37.00) 2024-06-30 · 1.62× (close 62.82 · TBVPS 38.77) 2024-09-30 · 2.01× (close 86.49 · TBVPS 43.01) 2024-12-31 · 1.98× (close 83.54 · TBVPS 42.25) 2025-03-31 · 1.78× (close 76.83 · TBVPS 43.16) 2025-06-30 · 1.67× (close 77.98 · TBVPS 46.73) 2025-09-30 · 1.82× (close 86.72 · TBVPS 47.70) 2025-12-31 · 1.76× (close 84.07 · TBVPS 47.71) 2026-03-31 · 1.50× (close 70.85 · TBVPS 47.19) 2026-06-30 · 1.66× (close 82.20 · TBVPS 49.43) p75 2.10× med 1.79× p25 1.65× now 1.51× Five-year median 1.79×, middle half 1.65–2.10×, range 1.06–3.76×. Now 1.51×: −16% below its own median, higher than 20% of those quarters. Each quarter priced at its own TBVPS · the band is the 25th–75th percentile
Where the money goes TTM through Mar 31, 2026 · $B 0 1 2 3 4 5 Interest income: 4.8 $B 4.8 Interest income Interest expense: −1.8 $B −1.8 Interest expense NII: 3.0 $B 3.0 NII Non-interest income: 0.8 $B 0.8 Non-interest income Net revenue: 3.9 $B 3.9 Net revenue Operating expenses: −2.2 $B −2.2 Operating expenses Provision: −0.5 $B −0.5 Provision Pre-tax: 1.2 $B 1.2 Pre-tax Tax: −0.2 $B −0.2 Tax Net income: 1.0 $B 1.0 Net income
assets $98.7B ÷ TCE $5.4B = 18.3× leverage · ROA 0.98% × 18.3 = ROTCE 18.0%
Revenue mix NII vs. non-interest income · Regional peers (10) WAL 79 / 21
Tier average 76 / 24
Efficiency 56.3% vs. tier 62.7% · ROTCE 18.0% vs. 13.3% · credit cost 12.6% vs. 3.4% · AOCI/TCE −8.3% vs. −11.3%.
Quarter by quarter 8 quarters · Sep 30, 2024 → Jun 30, 2026 · a gap is a dropped quarter