Valuation range the line at three costs of equity r 11% · 2.24× r 9% · 2.98× now 2.22×
0.0× 1.0× 2.0× 3.0× 4.0×
At r = 10% the line gives 2.56× for a 20.9% ROTCE; the market pays 2.22×, a 13% discount to the line . Below the range even at r = 11%.
Where it has traded quarter-end P/TBV · 20 quarters · Dec 31, 2021 → Sep 30, 2026 1.50× 2.00× 2.50× 3.00× 3.50× 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2021-12-31 · 2.05× (close 21.80 · TBVPS 10.65) 2022-03-31 · 2.41× (close 22.26 · TBVPS 9.23) 2022-06-30 · 2.19× (close 18.75 · TBVPS 8.56) 2022-09-30 · 2.82× (close 20.07 · TBVPS 7.13) 2022-12-31 · 2.71× (close 21.56 · TBVPS 7.96) 2023-03-31 · 2.07× (close 18.56 · TBVPS 8.98) 2023-06-30 · 2.04× (close 17.82 · TBVPS 8.75) 2023-09-30 · 2.14× (close 17.20 · TBVPS 8.04) 2023-12-31 · 2.02× (close 19.38 · TBVPS 9.59) 2024-03-31 · 2.30× (close 21.04 · TBVPS 9.13) 2024-06-30 · 2.15× (close 20.04 · TBVPS 9.34) 2024-09-30 · 2.12× (close 23.33 · TBVPS 10.98) 2024-12-31 · 2.33× (close 23.52 · TBVPS 10.11) 2025-03-31 · 1.99× (close 21.73 · TBVPS 10.93) 2025-06-30 · 2.03× (close 23.52 · TBVPS 11.58) 2025-09-30 · 2.00× (close 26.37 · TBVPS 13.20) 2025-12-31 · 2.02× (close 27.10 · TBVPS 13.41) 2026-03-31 · 1.96× (close 26.12 · TBVPS 13.30) 2026-06-30 · 2.43× (close 30.20 · TBVPS 12.43) 2026-09-30 · 2.17× (close 26.88 · TBVPS 12.39) p75 2.31× med 2.13× p25 2.03× now 2.22× Five-year median 2.13×, middle half 2.03–2.31×, range 1.96–2.82×. Now 2.22×: +4% above its own median, higher than 70% of those quarters. Each quarter priced at its own TBVPS · the band is the 25th–75th percentile
Where the money goes TTM through Jun 30, 2026 · $B 0 2 4 6 8 Interest income: 7.0 $B 7.0 Interest income Interest expense: −1.9 $B −1.9 Interest expense NII: 5.1 $B 5.1 NII Non-interest income: 2.5 $B 2.5 Non-interest income Net revenue: 7.6 $B 7.6 Net revenue Operating expenses: −4.5 $B −4.5 Operating expenses Provision: −0.2 $B −0.2 Provision Pre-tax: 2.9 $B 2.9 Pre-tax Tax: −0.6 $B −0.6 Tax Net income: 2.2 $B 2.2 Net income
assets $163.2B ÷ TCE $10.6B = 15.4× leverage · ROA 1.36% × 15.4 = ROTCE 20.9%
Revenue mix NII vs. non-interest income · Regional peers (10) RF 67 / 33
Tier average 77 / 23
Efficiency 59.7% vs. tier 62.2% · ROTCE 20.9% vs. 12.9% · credit cost 2.8% vs. 4.6% · AOCI/TCE −30.1% vs. −8.6%.
Quarter by quarter 8 quarters · Dec 31, 2024 → Sep 30, 2026 · a gap is a dropped quarter