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Wells Fargo — bank health check

WFC
Money centerAssets $2.3T4-quarter TTM
Close · Oct 16, 202683.87P/E 11.7 · yield 2.2%
P/TBV1.91×TBVPS 43.81
Line · r 10%2.03×range 1.78–2.37×
−6% discountP/TBV ÷ line − 1
Fed funds · last FOMC3.75–4.00%Sep 16, 2026 · +25bp
UST 3m · 2y · 10y · Oct 16, 20264.26 · 4.74 · 5.0910y−2y +0.35 · 10y−3m +0.83
KBE · YTD+4.8%1D +0.1% · 1Y +15.5% · 5Y +15%
KRE · YTD+7.7%1D +0.1% · 1Y +20.1% · 5Y −1%
SPY · YTD+11.9%1D −1.1% · 1Y +15.5% · 5Y +71%
Prices as ofOct 16, 2026Financials TTM through Sep 30, 2026

Valuation range

the line at three costs of equity
r 11% · 1.78×r 9% · 2.37×now 1.91×
0.0×1.0×2.0×3.0×4.0×

At r = 10% the line gives 2.03× for a 17.2% ROTCE; the market pays 1.91×, a 6% discount to the line.

Where it has traded

quarter-end P/TBV · 20 quarters · Dec 31, 2021 → Sep 30, 2026
0.50×1.13×1.75×2.38×3.00×2021202220232024202520262021-12-31 · 1.42× (close 47.98 · TBVPS 33.79)2022-03-31 · 1.51× (close 48.46 · TBVPS 32.06)2022-06-30 · 1.23× (close 39.17 · TBVPS 31.87)2022-09-30 · 1.28× (close 40.22 · TBVPS 31.31)2022-12-31 · 1.26× (close 41.29 · TBVPS 32.65)2023-03-31 · 1.13× (close 37.38 · TBVPS 33.12)2023-06-30 · 1.26× (close 42.68 · TBVPS 33.85)2023-09-30 · 1.19× (close 40.86 · TBVPS 34.35)2023-12-31 · 1.36× (close 49.22 · TBVPS 36.26)2024-03-31 · 1.62× (close 57.96 · TBVPS 35.81)2024-06-30 · 1.64× (close 59.39 · TBVPS 36.32)2024-09-30 · 1.47× (close 56.49 · TBVPS 38.54)2024-12-31 · 1.85× (close 70.24 · TBVPS 37.96)2025-03-31 · 1.83× (close 71.79 · TBVPS 39.21)2025-06-30 · 1.98× (close 80.12 · TBVPS 40.52)2025-09-30 · 2.03× (close 83.82 · TBVPS 41.24)2025-12-31 · 2.25× (close 93.20 · TBVPS 41.40)2026-03-31 · 1.85× (close 79.61 · TBVPS 42.92)2026-06-30 · 1.82× (close 82.64 · TBVPS 45.42)2026-09-30 · 1.83× (close 80.11 · TBVPS 43.81)p75 1.84×med 1.56×p25 1.28×now 1.91×
Five-year median 1.56×, middle half 1.28–1.84×, range 1.13–2.25×. Now 1.91×: +22% above its own median, higher than 85% of those quarters.Each quarter priced at its own TBVPS · the band is the 25th–75th percentile

Where the money goes

TTM through Sep 30, 2026 · $B
020406080Interest income: 92.2 $B92.2InterestincomeInterest expense: −43.0 $B−43.0InterestexpenseNII: 49.3 $B49.3NIINon-interest income: 38.2 $B38.2Non-interestincomeNet revenue: 87.5 $B87.5NetrevenueOperating expenses: −55.8 $B−55.8OperatingexpensesProvision: −4.1 $B−4.1ProvisionOther items: 0.1 $B0.1OtheritemsPre-tax: 27.7 $B27.7Pre-taxTax: −4.4 $B−4.4TaxNet income: 23.0 $B23.0Netincome
assets $2.3T ÷ TCE $133.7B = 16.9× leverage · ROA 1.02% × 16.9 = ROTCE 17.2%

Revenue mix

NII vs. non-interest income · Money center peers (3)
WFC56 / 44
Tier average52 / 48

Efficiency 63.8% vs. tier 57.5% · ROTCE 17.2% vs. 17.3% · credit cost 4.7% vs. 7.1% · AOCI/TCE −12.4% vs. −14.1%.

Quarter by quarter

8 quarters · Dec 31, 2024 → Sep 30, 2026 · a gap is a dropped quarter
NII, $B12.5
Provision, $B1.03
Efficiency62.8%
AOCI / TCE−12.4%