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M&T Bank — bank health check

MTB
RegionalAssets $220.5B4-quarter TTM
Close · Oct 16, 2026215.28P/E 11.2 · yield 2.8%
P/TBV1.59×TBVPS 135.38
Line · r 10%1.76×range 1.54–2.06×
−10% discountP/TBV ÷ line − 1
Fed funds · last FOMC3.75–4.00%Sep 16, 2026 · +25bp
UST 3m · 2y · 10y · Oct 16, 20264.26 · 4.74 · 5.0910y−2y +0.35 · 10y−3m +0.83
KBE · YTD+4.8%1D +0.1% · 1Y +15.5% · 5Y +15%
KRE · YTD+7.7%1D +0.1% · 1Y +20.1% · 5Y −1%
SPY · YTD+11.9%1D −1.1% · 1Y +15.5% · 5Y +71%
Prices as ofOct 16, 2026Financials TTM through Sep 30, 2026

Valuation range

the line at three costs of equity
r 11% · 1.54×r 9% · 2.06×now 1.59×
0.0×1.0×2.0×3.0×4.0×

At r = 10% the line gives 1.76× for a 15.3% ROTCE; the market pays 1.59×, a 10% discount to the line.

Where it has traded

quarter-end P/TBV · 20 quarters · Dec 31, 2021 → Sep 30, 2026
1.00×1.38×1.75×2.13×2.50×2021202220232024202520262021-12-31 · 1.71× (close 153.58 · TBVPS 89.66)2022-03-31 · 1.90× (close 169.50 · TBVPS 89.09)2022-06-30 · 1.89× (close 159.39 · TBVPS 84.35)2022-09-30 · 2.13× (close 176.32 · TBVPS 82.64)2022-12-31 · 1.71× (close 145.06 · TBVPS 84.86)2023-03-31 · 1.37× (close 119.57 · TBVPS 87.19)2023-06-30 · 1.36× (close 123.76 · TBVPS 91.08)2023-09-30 · 1.35× (close 126.45 · TBVPS 93.41)2023-12-31 · 1.40× (close 137.08 · TBVPS 97.97)2024-03-31 · 1.47× (close 145.44 · TBVPS 99.12)2024-06-30 · 1.48× (close 151.36 · TBVPS 101.97)2024-09-30 · 1.67× (close 178.12 · TBVPS 106.88)2024-12-31 · 1.74× (close 188.01 · TBVPS 108.25)2025-03-31 · 1.64× (close 178.75 · TBVPS 109.30)2025-06-30 · 1.77× (close 193.99 · TBVPS 109.88)2025-09-30 · 1.74× (close 197.62 · TBVPS 113.67)2025-12-31 · 1.77× (close 201.48 · TBVPS 113.79)2026-03-31 · 1.90× (close 206.72 · TBVPS 108.70)2026-06-30 · 2.19× (close 238.01 · TBVPS 108.58)2026-09-30 · 1.61× (close 217.60 · TBVPS 135.38)p75 1.80×med 1.71×p25 1.48×now 1.59×
Five-year median 1.71×, middle half 1.48–1.80×, range 1.35–2.19×. Now 1.59×: −7% below its own median, higher than 30% of those quarters.Each quarter priced at its own TBVPS · the band is the 25th–75th percentile

Where the money goes

TTM through Sep 30, 2026 · $B
0246810Interest income: 10.5 $B10.5InterestincomeInterest expense: −3.3 $B−3.3InterestexpenseNII: 7.1 $B7.1NIINon-interest income: 2.9 $B2.9Non-interestincomeNet revenue: 10.0 $B10.0NetrevenueOperating expenses: −5.4 $B−5.4OperatingexpensesProvision: −0.5 $B−0.5ProvisionOther items: −0.2 $B−0.2OtheritemsPre-tax: 3.9 $B3.9Pre-taxTax: −0.9 $B−0.9TaxNet income: 3.0 $B3.0Netincome
assets $220.5B ÷ TCE $19.7B = 11.2× leverage · ROA 1.37% × 11.2 = ROTCE 15.3%

Revenue mix

NII vs. non-interest income · Regional peers (10)
MTB71 / 29
Tier average77 / 23

Efficiency 53.6% vs. tier 63.0% · ROTCE 15.3% vs. 13.6% · credit cost 5.2% vs. 4.3% · AOCI/TCE 0.0% vs. −12.3%.

Quarter by quarter

8 quarters · Dec 31, 2024 → Sep 30, 2026 · a gap is a dropped quarter
NII, $B1.8
Provision, $B0.14
Efficiency54.9%
AOCI / TCE0.0%