Valuation range the line at three costs of equity r 11% · 2.17× r 9% · 2.90× now 2.23×
0.0× 1.0× 2.0× 3.0× 4.0×
At r = 10% the line gives 2.48× for a 20.4% ROTCE; the market pays 2.23×, a 10% discount to the line .
Where it has traded quarter-end P/TBV · 20 quarters · Dec 31, 2021 → Sep 30, 2026 1.50× 1.88× 2.25× 2.63× 3.00× 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2021-12-31 · 2.41× (close 56.17 · TBVPS 23.28) 2022-03-31 · 2.64× (close 53.15 · TBVPS 20.15) 2022-06-30 · 2.52× (close 46.02 · TBVPS 18.26) 2022-09-30 · 2.31× (close 40.32 · TBVPS 17.48) 2022-12-31 · 2.68× (close 43.61 · TBVPS 16.28) 2023-03-31 · 2.07× (close 36.05 · TBVPS 17.45) 2023-06-30 · 1.87× (close 33.04 · TBVPS 17.67) 2023-09-30 · 1.87× (close 33.06 · TBVPS 17.69) 2023-12-31 · 2.25× (close 43.28 · TBVPS 19.21) 2024-03-31 · 2.30× (close 44.70 · TBVPS 19.40) 2024-06-30 · 1.97× (close 39.70 · TBVPS 20.10) 2024-09-30 · 2.10× (close 45.73 · TBVPS 21.77) 2024-12-31 · 2.21× (close 47.83 · TBVPS 21.59) 2025-03-31 · 1.86× (close 42.22 · TBVPS 22.66) 2025-06-30 · 1.92× (close 45.25 · TBVPS 23.55) 2025-09-30 · 1.94× (close 48.33 · TBVPS 24.89) 2025-12-31 · 2.03× (close 53.36 · TBVPS 26.25) 2026-03-31 · 1.95× (close 52.01 · TBVPS 26.72) 2026-06-30 · 2.22× (close 60.40 · TBVPS 27.26) 2026-09-30 · 2.19× (close 57.76 · TBVPS 26.35) p75 2.30× med 2.15× p25 1.95× now 2.23× Five-year median 2.15×, middle half 1.95–2.30×, range 1.86–2.68×. Now 2.23×: +4% above its own median, higher than 65% of those quarters. Each quarter priced at its own TBVPS · the band is the 25th–75th percentile
Where the money goes TTM through Sep 30, 2026 · $B 0 10 20 30 Interest income: 31.1 $B 31.1 Interest income Interest expense: −13.8 $B −13.8 Interest expense NII: 17.4 $B 17.4 NII Non-interest income: 12.9 $B 12.9 Non-interest income Net revenue: 30.2 $B 30.2 Net revenue Operating expenses: −17.7 $B −17.7 Operating expenses Provision: −1.8 $B −1.8 Provision Other items: −0.3 $B −0.3 Other items Pre-tax: 10.5 $B 10.5 Pre-tax Tax: −2.1 $B −2.1 Tax Net income: 8.4 $B 8.4 Net income
assets $703.0B ÷ TCE $41.1B = 17.1× leverage · ROA 1.19% × 17.1 = ROTCE 20.4%
Revenue mix NII vs. non-interest income · Super regional peers (4) USB 57 / 43
Tier average 68 / 32
Efficiency 58.6% vs. tier 62.7% · ROTCE 20.4% vs. 14.0% · credit cost 5.8% vs. 4.9% · AOCI/TCE −23.0% vs. −14.7%.
Quarter by quarter 8 quarters · Dec 31, 2024 → Sep 30, 2026 · a gap is a dropped quarter