Valuation range the line at three costs of equity r 11% · 1.02× r 9% · 1.36× now 2.20×
0.0× 1.0× 2.0× 3.0× 4.0×
At r = 10% the line gives 1.17× for a 11.2% ROTCE; the market pays 2.20×, a 88% premium to the line . Above the range even at r = 9%.
Where it has traded quarter-end P/TBV · 20 quarters · Sep 30, 2021 → Jun 30, 2026 1.50× 2.00× 2.50× 3.00× 3.50× 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2021-09-30 · 2.03× (close 42.44 · TBVPS 20.94) 2021-12-31 · 2.12× (close 43.55 · TBVPS 20.51) 2022-03-31 · 2.51× (close 43.04 · TBVPS 17.18) 2022-06-30 · 2.30× (close 33.60 · TBVPS 14.61) 2022-09-30 · 2.85× (close 31.96 · TBVPS 11.20) 2022-12-31 · 2.72× (close 32.81 · TBVPS 12.07) 2023-03-31 · 1.94× (close 26.64 · TBVPS 13.71) 2023-06-30 · 2.03× (close 26.21 · TBVPS 12.91) 2023-09-30 · 2.30× (close 25.33 · TBVPS 10.99) 2023-12-31 · 2.31× (close 34.49 · TBVPS 14.94) 2024-03-31 · 2.54× (close 37.21 · TBVPS 14.64) 2024-06-30 · 2.44× (close 36.49 · TBVPS 14.98) 2024-09-30 · 2.45× (close 42.84 · TBVPS 17.48) 2024-12-31 · 2.66× (close 42.28 · TBVPS 15.87) 2025-03-31 · 2.28× (close 39.20 · TBVPS 17.19) 2025-06-30 · 2.24× (close 41.13 · TBVPS 18.38) 2025-09-30 · 2.35× (close 44.55 · TBVPS 18.95) 2025-12-31 · 2.10× (close 46.81 · TBVPS 22.32) 2026-03-31 · 1.86× (close 46.46 · TBVPS 24.96) 2026-06-30 · 2.46× (close 56.37 · TBVPS 22.92) p75 2.47× med 2.31× p25 2.12× now 2.20× Five-year median 2.31×, middle half 2.12–2.47×, range 1.86–2.85×. Now 2.20×: −5% below its own median, higher than 30% of those quarters. Each quarter priced at its own TBVPS · the band is the 25th–75th percentile
Where the money goes TTM through Jun 30, 2026 · $B 0 5 10 Interest income: 11.3 $B 11.3 Interest income Interest expense: −4.1 $B −4.1 Interest expense NII: 7.2 $B 7.2 NII Non-interest income: 3.5 $B 3.5 Non-interest income Net revenue: 10.7 $B 10.7 Net revenue Operating expenses: −7.2 $B −7.2 Operating expenses Provision: −0.6 $B −0.6 Provision Pre-tax: 3.0 $B 3.0 Pre-tax Tax: −0.6 $B −0.6 Tax Net income: 2.3 $B 2.3 Net income
assets $300.1B ÷ TCE $21.0B = 14.3× leverage · ROA 0.78% × 14.3 = ROTCE 11.2%
Revenue mix NII vs. non-interest income · Super regional peers (4) FITB 67 / 33
Tier average 66 / 34
Efficiency 67.0% vs. tier 60.6% · ROTCE 11.2% vs. 16.3% · credit cost 5.1% vs. 5.1% · AOCI/TCE −15.9% vs. −16.5%.
Quarter by quarter 8 quarters · Sep 30, 2024 → Jun 30, 2026 · a gap is a dropped quarter