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BNY — bank health check

BNY
Custody & trustAssets $494.0B4-quarter TTMformerly BK
Close · Oct 16, 2026143.30P/E 21.4 · yield 1.6%
P/TBV5.05×TBVPS 28.36
Line · r 10%3.22×range 2.82–3.76×
+57% premiumP/TBV ÷ line − 1
Fed funds · last FOMC3.75–4.00%Sep 16, 2026 · +25bp
UST 3m · 2y · 10y · Oct 16, 20264.26 · 4.74 · 5.0910y−2y +0.35 · 10y−3m +0.83
KBE · YTD+4.8%1D +0.1% · 1Y +15.5% · 5Y +15%
KRE · YTD+7.7%1D +0.1% · 1Y +20.1% · 5Y −1%
SPY · YTD+11.9%1D −1.1% · 1Y +15.5% · 5Y +71%
Prices as ofOct 16, 2026Financials TTM through Sep 30, 2026

Valuation range

the line at three costs of equity
r 11% · 2.82×r 9% · 3.76×now 5.05×
0.0×1.0×2.0×3.0×4.0×5.0×6.0×

At r = 10% the line gives 3.22× for a 25.6% ROTCE; the market pays 5.05×, a 57% premium to the line. Above the range even at r = 9%.

Where it has traded

quarter-end P/TBV · 19 quarters · Dec 31, 2021 → Jun 30, 2026
2.00×2.88×3.75×4.63×5.50×2021202220232024202520262021-12-31 · 3.04× (close 58.08 · TBVPS 19.08)2022-03-31 · 2.80× (close 49.63 · TBVPS 17.71)2022-06-30 · 2.46× (close 41.71 · TBVPS 16.95)2022-09-30 · 2.34× (close 38.52 · TBVPS 16.45)2022-12-31 · 2.55× (close 45.52 · TBVPS 17.88)2023-03-31 · 2.54× (close 45.44 · TBVPS 17.88)2023-06-30 · 2.41× (close 44.52 · TBVPS 18.48)2023-09-30 · 2.26× (close 42.65 · TBVPS 18.84)2023-12-31 · 2.70× (close 52.05 · TBVPS 19.27)2024-03-31 · 2.99× (close 57.62 · TBVPS 19.29)2024-06-30 · 3.01× (close 59.89 · TBVPS 19.90)2024-09-30 · 3.34× (close 71.86 · TBVPS 21.53)2024-12-31 · 3.80× (close 76.83 · TBVPS 20.24)2025-03-31 · 3.91× (close 83.87 · TBVPS 21.47)2025-06-30 · 3.46× (close 91.11 · TBVPS 26.32)2025-09-30 · 4.59× (close 108.96 · TBVPS 23.75)2025-12-31 · 4.11× (close 116.09 · TBVPS 28.22)2026-03-31 · 4.82× (close 118.63 · TBVPS 24.63)2026-06-30 · 4.95× (close 144.61 · TBVPS 29.19)p75 3.85×med 3.01×p25 2.54×now 5.05×
Five-year median 3.01×, middle half 2.54–3.85×, range 2.26–4.95×. Now 5.05×: +68% above its own median, higher than 100% of those quarters.Each quarter priced at its own TBVPS · the band is the 25th–75th percentile

Where the money goes

TTM through Sep 30, 2026 · $B
051015Interest income: 18.1 $B18.1InterestincomeInterest expense: −13.9 $B−13.9InterestexpenseNII: 4.2 $B4.2NIINon-interest income: 12.9 $B12.9Non-interestincomeNet revenue: 17.1 $B17.1NetrevenueOperating expenses: −10.1 $B−10.1OperatingexpensesProvision: 0.0 $B0.0ProvisionOther items: −0.7 $B−0.7OtheritemsPre-tax: 6.3 $B6.3Pre-taxTax: −1.2 $B−1.2TaxNet income: 5.1 $B5.1Netincome
assets $494.0B ÷ TCE $19.8B = 25.0× leverage · ROA 1.02% × 25.0 = ROTCE 25.6%

Revenue mix

NII vs. non-interest income · Custody & trust peers (2)
BNY24 / 76
Tier average25 / 75

Efficiency 59.3% vs. tier 68.4% · ROTCE 25.6% vs. 18.8% · credit cost -0.2% vs. -0.1% · AOCI/TCE −22.3% vs. −6.4%.

Quarter by quarter

8 quarters · Dec 31, 2024 → Sep 30, 2026 · a gap is a dropped quarter
NII, $B0.0
Provision, $B0.00
Efficiency0.0%
AOCI / TCE−22.3%