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Citigroup — bank health check

C
Money centerAssets $2.9T4-quarter TTM
Close · Oct 16, 2026124.26P/E 12.1 · yield 2.0%
P/TBV1.53×TBVPS 81.03
Line · r 10%1.42×range 1.24–1.66×
+8% premiumP/TBV ÷ line − 1
Fed funds · last FOMC3.75–4.00%Sep 16, 2026 · +25bp
UST 3m · 2y · 10y · Oct 16, 20264.26 · 4.74 · 5.0910y−2y +0.35 · 10y−3m +0.83
KBE · YTD+4.8%1D +0.1% · 1Y +15.5% · 5Y +15%
KRE · YTD+7.7%1D +0.1% · 1Y +20.1% · 5Y −1%
SPY · YTD+11.9%1D −1.1% · 1Y +15.5% · 5Y +71%
Prices as ofOct 16, 2026Financials TTM through Sep 30, 2026

Valuation range

the line at three costs of equity
r 11% · 1.24×r 9% · 1.66×now 1.53×
0.0×1.0×2.0×3.0×4.0×

At r = 10% the line gives 1.42× for a 13.0% ROTCE; the market pays 1.53×, a 8% premium to the line.

Where it has traded

quarter-end P/TBV · 20 quarters · Dec 31, 2021 → Sep 30, 2026
0.00×0.50×1.00×1.50×2.00×2021202220232024202520262021-12-31 · 0.77× (close 60.39 · TBVPS 78.53)2022-03-31 · 0.69× (close 53.40 · TBVPS 77.62)2022-06-30 · 0.58× (close 45.99 · TBVPS 79.62)2022-09-30 · 0.52× (close 41.67 · TBVPS 79.67)2022-12-31 · 0.56× (close 45.23 · TBVPS 80.82)2023-03-31 · 0.56× (close 46.89 · TBVPS 83.26)2023-06-30 · 0.55× (close 46.04 · TBVPS 83.26)2023-09-30 · 0.48× (close 41.13 · TBVPS 84.87)2023-12-31 · 0.60× (close 51.44 · TBVPS 85.53)2024-03-31 · 0.74× (close 63.24 · TBVPS 85.39)2024-06-30 · 0.74× (close 63.46 · TBVPS 85.46)2024-09-30 · 0.72× (close 62.60 · TBVPS 87.06)2024-12-31 · 0.81× (close 70.39 · TBVPS 86.46)2025-03-31 · 0.80× (close 70.99 · TBVPS 88.67)2025-06-30 · 0.93× (close 85.12 · TBVPS 91.17)2025-09-30 · 1.11× (close 101.50 · TBVPS 91.55)2025-12-31 · 1.29× (close 116.69 · TBVPS 90.66)2026-03-31 · 1.20× (close 113.41 · TBVPS 94.65)2026-06-30 · 1.44× (close 139.96 · TBVPS 97.06)2026-09-30 · 1.60× (close 129.53 · TBVPS 81.03)p75 0.98×med 0.74×p25 0.57×now 1.53×
Five-year median 0.74×, middle half 0.57–0.98×, range 0.48–1.60×. Now 1.53×: +107% above its own median, higher than 95% of those quarters.Each quarter priced at its own TBVPS · the band is the 25th–75th percentile

Where the money goes

TTM through Sep 30, 2026 · $B
020406080100Interest income: 109.8 $B109.8InterestincomeInterest expense: −61.3 $B−61.3InterestexpenseNII: 48.5 $B48.5NIINon-interest income: 44.4 $B44.4Non-interestincomeNet revenue: 92.9 $B92.9NetrevenueOperating expenses: −56.2 $B−56.2OperatingexpensesProvision: −10.1 $B−10.1ProvisionPre-tax: 26.7 $B26.7Pre-taxTax: −6.8 $B−6.8TaxNet income: 19.3 $B19.3Netincome
assets $2.9T ÷ TCE $149.2B = 19.7× leverage · ROA 0.66% × 19.7 = ROTCE 13.0%

Revenue mix

NII vs. non-interest income · Money center peers (3)
C52 / 48
Tier average53 / 47

Efficiency 60.4% vs. tier 58.7% · ROTCE 13.0% vs. 18.7% · credit cost 10.9% vs. 5.0% · AOCI/TCE −27.8% vs. −8.9%.

Quarter by quarter

8 quarters · Dec 31, 2024 → Sep 30, 2026 · a gap is a dropped quarter
NII, $B0.0
Provision, $B2.59
Efficiency58.5%
AOCI / TCE−27.8%