SweetValueLab
Write for us

Phillips 66 — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

PSX
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingCIK 0001534701phillips66.comAbout PSX
Last close · Oct 16, 2026293.17+3.97 (+1.37%)
Market cap$117.5B
Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y
115.26
Phillips 66 closed at $293.17 — overvalued by 154% vs model.
51.19the model's range349.28

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a cyclical company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models
39.38 – 779.99
Wall St. target
292.00 0% above
Above model, 1y
20 of 20 days

Price and model value

Embed this card

PSX's close against its model value, as a 420×168 card for your own page. It updates nightly with this site and links back here.

Free to embed; keep the attribution link.
Loading chart…
What the marks mean
Daily close

Dividends

Quarterly · as of Oct 16, 2026
Yield, trailing 12 months
1.71%
Past 2 years
low 1.69%high 4.95%
Dividends per share, a year at a time
$3.54Aug ’21$3.78Aug ’22$4.12Aug ’23$4.40Aug ’24$4.70Aug ’25$5.01TTM
Coverage
—
Raised
4 years in a row
Growth, 5 yrs
7.2% a year
Last change
+5.8% · Feb 2026
Every payment, with ex-dates · latest $1.27, paid Sep 1, 2026

Research on PSX

No posts on PSX yet.
Studied PSX from its filings? Guest posts are reviewed before they go live.Write about PSX →

How it is valued

Valued asCyclical
Revenue declining (~-5% recent)Thin margins (3.3% net margin)Pays dividendsHighly cyclical earnings
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2025 · chosen for cyclical companies
P/E
27.2×
EV / EBITDA
13.9×
FCF yield
2.3%
Dividend yield, TTM
1.71%
Beta
0.70
Cost of capital (WACC)
7.77%
Full financials

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted
10-14Wells Fargo · target345.00
10-11Jefferies · target276.00
10-08Mizuho · “Neutral” from “Outperform”downgrade
10-08Mizuho Securities · target300.00
Ratings, targets and estimates

The weekly

One email a week across every stock we cover: 13F filings, insider trades, earnings and new research. It covers the whole market, not just PSX. No account.

About Phillips 66

Phillips 66 operates as a diversified energy company, specializing in both manufacturing and logistics. Its comprehensive business model is structured across four primary segments: Midstream, Chemicals, Refining, and Marketing & Specialties (M&S). The Midstream division manages the vital infrastructure for transporting and processing various energy commodities. This includes moving crude oil and other feedstocks, delivering refined petroleum products to market, offering terminaling and storage solutions, and handling natural gas liquids (NGLs) through processes like transportation, storage, fractionation, export, and marketing. It also provides fee-based processing services and oversees the gathering, processing, transportation, and marketing of natural gas. The Chemicals segment is dedicated to the production and distribution of a broad spectrum of chemical products. This encompasses olefins like ethylene, aromatics and styrenics such as benzene, cyclohexane, styrene, and polystyrene, alongside various specialty chemicals. These specialty products include organosulfur compounds, solvents, catalysts, and chemicals utilized in drilling and mining operations. Through its Refining segment, Phillips 66 transforms crude oil and other feedstocks into essential petroleum products. These include different grades of gasoline, distillates, aviation fuels, and renewable fuels, processed at its network of 12 refineries located in the United States and Europe. The Marketing & Specialties (M&S) segment focuses on the procurement, resale, and marketing of refined petroleum products like gasolines, distillates, and aviation fuels, primarily serving markets in the United States and Europe. This segment also manufactures and distributes specialized products, including base oils and lubricants. Phillips 66, founded in 1875, is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

CEO
Mark E. Lashier
Headquarters
Houston, TX
Employees
12,600
IPO
2012-04-12
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.