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Valero Energy Corporation — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

VLO
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingCIK 0001035002valero.comAbout VLO
Last close · Oct 16, 2026444.71+0.65 (+0.15%)
Market cap$128.0B
Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y
119.24
Valero Energy closed at $444.71 — overvalued by 273% vs model.
74.80the model's range279.05

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a cyclical company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models
74.07 – 1,318.31
Wall St. target
441.00 1% above
Above model, 1y
20 of 20 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean
Daily close

Dividends

Quarterly · as of Oct 16, 2026
Yield, trailing 12 months
1.06%
Past 2 years
low 1.03%high 4.15%
Dividends per share, a year at a time
$3.92Aug ’21$3.92Aug ’22$4.04Aug ’23$4.23Aug ’24$4.46Jul ’25$4.73TTM
Coverage
—
Raised
3 years in a row
Growth, 5 yrs
3.8% a year
Last change
+6.2% · Feb 2026
Every payment, with ex-dates · latest $1.20, paid Aug 31, 2026

Research on VLO

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How it is valued

Valued asCyclical
Revenue declining (~-8% recent)Thin margins (1.9% net margin)Pays dividendsHighly cyclical earnings
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2025 · chosen for cyclical companies
P/E
58.7×
EV / EBITDA
19.9×
FCF yield
3.7%
Dividend yield, TTM
1.06%
Beta
0.59
Cost of capital (WACC)
7.78%
Full financials

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted
10-14Wells Fargo · target485.00
10-08Mizuho Securities · target434.00
10-08Jefferies · target394.00
09-22Jefferies · “Hold” from “Buy”downgrade
Ratings, targets and estimates

Comparable companies

by business, not by industry label
Side by side:vs MPC

The weekly

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About Valero Energy

Valero Energy Corporation functions as a global producer and marketer of transportation fuels and petrochemicals, with operations spanning the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland, and other international territories. The company organizes its business across three primary divisions: Refining, Renewable Diesel, and Ethanol. Its Refining segment generates a wide array of products, including various types of gasoline (conventional, premium, reformulated, and California Air Resources Board-compliant), diverse diesel fuels (low-sulfur, ultra-low-sulfur, and CARB diesel), jet fuels, blendstocks, asphalts, petrochemicals, and lubricants. This division also handles the sale of lube oils and natural gas liquids. As of the end of 2021, Valero managed 15 petroleum refineries, boasting a combined daily processing capacity of approximately 3.2 million barrels of crude oil. The Ethanol division comprises 12 plants, capable of producing around 1.6 billion gallons of ethanol annually. These facilities also yield co-products such as dry distiller grains, syrup, and inedible corn oil, which are largely supplied to animal feed markets. Valero distributes its refined goods through wholesale rack and bulk channels, in addition to approximately 7,000 branded retail stations operating under names like Valero, Beacon, Diamond Shamrock, Shamrock, Ultramar, and Texaco. Furthermore, Valero contributes to renewable energy production by owning and operating a facility dedicated to converting animal fats, used cooking oils, and inedible distillers corn oils into renewable diesel. Supporting its extensive operations, the company maintains a comprehensive logistics network that includes crude oil and refined product pipelines, storage terminals, tanks, marine docks, and truck rack bays. Originally established in 1980 as Valero Refining and Marketing Company, the firm adopted its current name, Valero Energy Corporation, in August 1997. Its corporate headquarters are situated in San Antonio, Texas.

CEO
R. Lane Riggs
Headquarters
San Antonio, TX
Employees
9,785
IPO
1982-01-04
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.