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Marathon Petroleum Corporation — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

MPC
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingCIK 0001510295marathonpetroleum.comAbout MPC
Last close · Oct 16, 2026478.07+1.15 (+0.24%)
Market cap$134.3B
Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y
444.14
Marathon Petroleum closed at $478.07 — overvalued by 8% vs model.
252.89the model's range1,292.94

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a cyclical company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models
8.47 – 513.32
Wall St. target
455.00 5% above
Above model, 1y
16 of 20 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean
Daily close

Dividends

Quarterly · as of Oct 16, 2026
Yield, trailing 12 months
0.84%
Past 2 years
low 0.82%high 2.93%
Dividends per share, a year at a time
$2.32Aug ’21$2.32Aug ’22$3.00Aug ’23$3.30Aug ’24$3.64Aug ’25$4.00TTM
Dividends / free cash flow, FY2025
23.9%
Raised
4 years in a row
Growth, 5 yrs
11.5% a year
Last change
+9.9% · Nov 2025
Every payment, with ex-dates · latest $1.00, paid Sep 10, 2026

Research on MPC

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How it is valued

Valued asCyclical
Revenue declining (~-5% recent)Thin margins (3.0% net margin)Highly cyclical earnings
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2025 · chosen for cyclical companies
P/E
36.2×
EV / EBITDA
14.0×
FCF yield
3.3%
Dividend yield, TTM
0.84%
Beta
0.54
Cost of capital (WACC)
7.23%
Full financials

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted
10-14Wells Fargo · target560.00
10-11Jefferies · target433.00
10-09UBS · target510.00
09-22Jefferies · “Hold” from “Buy”downgrade
Ratings, targets and estimates

Comparable companies

by business, not by industry label
1 more company lists MPC as a comparable
Side by side:vs VLO

The weekly

One email a week across every stock we cover: 13F filings, insider trades, earnings and new research. It covers the whole market, not just MPC. No account.

About Marathon Petroleum

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) functions as a prominent integrated energy enterprise, primarily concentrating its downstream operations across the United States. Its business is bifurcated into two main divisions: Refining & Marketing, and Midstream. The Refining & Marketing segment is responsible for processing crude oil and various other raw materials at its refineries, strategically located in the U.S. Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions. This division also acquires refined petroleum products and ethanol for subsequent distribution. Key outputs from this segment encompass a diverse array of transportation fuels, including different gasoline blends, heavy fuel oil, and asphalt. Additionally, it manufactures chemicals such as aromatics, propane, propylene, and sulfur. MPC sells these refined goods through multiple channels, including wholesale marketers domestically and globally, purchasers on the open spot market, and independent entrepreneurs who manage primarily Marathon-branded retail locations. It also supplies fuel via long-term agreements to direct dealer sites, predominantly under the ARCO brand. The Midstream segment handles the comprehensive movement, storage, distribution, and commercialization of crude oil and refined products. This is achieved through its extensive network of refining logistics assets, pipelines, terminals, towboats, and barges. Moreover, this segment engages in the collection, processing, and transportation of natural gas, alongside the gathering, transport, fractionation, storage, and marketing of natural gas liquids. By December 31, 2021, the corporation supported 7,159 branded jobber retail points, managed by independent entrepreneurs, spanning 37 U.S. states, the District of Columbia, and Mexico. Marathon Petroleum Corporation, established in 1887, maintains its corporate headquarters in Findlay, Ohio.

CEO
Maryann T. Mannen
Headquarters
Findlay, OH
Employees
18,500
IPO
2011-06-24
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.