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The Home Depot, Inc. — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

HD
NYSEConsumer CyclicalHome ImprovementCIK 0000354950homedepot.comAbout HD
Last close · Oct 16, 2026309.63+1.39 (+0.45%)
Market cap$308.9B
Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y
231.88
Home Depot closed at $309.63 — overvalued by 34% vs model.
139.41the model's range521.45

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for dividend payer — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models
136.41 – 369.59
Wall St. target
381.50 19% below
Above model, 1y
8 of 22 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean
Daily close

Dividends

Quarterly · as of Oct 16, 2026
Yield, trailing 12 months
3.00%
Past 2 years
low 2.06%high 3.30%
Dividends per share, a year at a time
$6.45Sep ’21$7.35Aug ’22$8.17Aug ’23$8.84Aug ’24$9.15Sep ’25$9.29TTM
Dividends / free cash flow, FY2026
72.4%
Raised
16 years in a row
Growth, 5 yrs
7.6% a year
Last change
+1.3% · Mar 2026
Every payment, with ex-dates · latest $2.33, paid Sep 17, 2026

Research on HD

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How it is valued

Valued asDividend Payer
Low/slowing growth (~4% recent)Moderate margins (9% net margin)Pays dividendsHighly cyclical earningsHigh leverage (D/E 5.1x)
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2026
P/E
21.8×
EV / EBITDA
15.4×
FCF yield
4.1%
Dividend yield, TTM
3.00%
Beta
1.00
Cost of capital (WACC)
8.29%
On the lists: #38 Largest companies
Full financials

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted
10-06Melius Research · target397.00
08-19RBC Capital · target342.00
08-19Bernstein · target354.00
06-23Wolfe Research · “Peer Perform” from “Outperform”downgrade
Ratings, targets and estimates

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About Home Depot

The Home Depot, Inc. operates as a prominent retailer specializing in home renovation and improvement. Through its expansive network of "The Home Depot" stores, it furnishes consumers with an extensive array of goods, including building materials, home enhancement products, lawn and garden supplies, decorative items, and facilities maintenance, repair, and operational (MRO) supplies. In addition to selling products, the company extends professional installation services for key home features like flooring, cabinetry (including makeovers), countertops, furnaces and central air conditioning systems, and window replacements. Customers can also access tool and equipment rental options. Its diverse clientele includes both individual homeowners and a broad spectrum of professional clients, such as renovators, general contractors, maintenance personnel, handymen, property managers, building service contractors, and specialized tradespeople like electricians, plumbers, and painters. The firm also distributes its merchandise through several online platforms, notably homedepot.com, along with specialized sites such as blinds.com for bespoke window coverings and thecompanystore.com for home textiles and decorative goods. By the end of 2021, the corporation operated a total of 2,317 outlets across the United States. Incorporated in 1978, The Home Depot, Inc. maintains its corporate headquarters in Atlanta, Georgia.

CEO
Edward Decker
Headquarters
Atlanta, GA
Employees
472,400
IPO
1981-09-22
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.