Ferguson plc — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

FERG

NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionCIK 0002011641corporate.ferguson.comAbout FERG

Last close · Oct 16, 2026231.61+2.85 (+1.25%)

Market cap$44.8B

Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y

169.10

Ferguson Enterprises closed at $231.61 — overvalued by 37% vs model.

112.29the model's range335.55

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for mature & stable — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models

75.19 – 531.01

Wall St. target

288.00 20% below

Above model, 1y

14 of 20 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean

Daily close

Valuation models

price $231.61 · as of Oct 17, 2026

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5yused112.29 – 335.55169.1037% overvalued DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y123.57 – 346.95181.1528% overvalued DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y191.40 – 347.81263.3512% undervalued DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y182.00 – 356.91257.2710% undervalued P/E · peers253.24 – 402.31321.1228% undervalued P/E · own history179.57 – 252.38229.371% overvalued PEG—147.8457% overvalued EV/EBITDA · peers234.67 – 381.14309.7625% undervalued EV/Revenue · peers325.11 – 784.28531.0156% undervalued Earnings power value62.06 – 93.5175.19208% overvalued Dividend discount55.94 – 123.4979.98190% overvalued Wall St. consensus target—288.0020% below Cost of capital (WACC)—9.09%—

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for mature & stable — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. How we value a stock walks through every input.

engine pkg:0.1.0

Dividends

Quarterly · as of Oct 16, 2026

Yield, trailing 12 months

1.54%

Past 2 years

low 1.26%high 2.19%

Dividends per share, a year at a time

Dividends / free cash flow, FY2025: 30.5%
Raised: 2 years in a row
Growth, 4 yrs: -15.4% a year
Last change: +7.2% · Jan 2026

Every payment, with ex-dates · latest $0.89, paid Oct 7, 2026

Research on FERG

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How it is valued

Valued asMature & Stable

Low/slowing growth (~2% recent)Moderate margins (6% net margin)Pays dividendsHighly cyclical earnings

What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2025

P/E

24.9×

EV / EBITDA

15.3×

FCF yield

1.1%

Dividend yield, TTM

1.54%

Beta

1.12

Cost of capital (WACC)

9.09%

Full financials

Superinvestors

13F · Q2 2026

Henry EllenbogenDurable Capital Partners LP$707.2M KlarmanBaupost Group LLC$344.3M Nelson PeltzTrian Fund Management, L.P.$257.8M John ArmitageEgerton Capital (UK) LLP$238.8M

All 12 holders

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted

10-07RBC Capital · target286.00

10-06Melius Research · target252.00

09-03Jefferies · target295.00

07-17Zelman & Assoc · “Outperform” from “Neutral”upgrade

Ratings, targets and estimates

Recent

filings, insider trades and key news

10-15Form 4 · FWinckler Richard · 70 sh@ 222.94 10-15Form 4 · FThees William T. Jr · 290 sh@ 222.94 10-14Form 4 · FWinckler Richard · 44 sh@ 222.86 10-14Form 4 · AThees William T. Jr · 1 sh@ 0.00 10-14Form 4 · SThees William T. Jr · 217 sh@ 220.63 08-148-K · 8.01Other Events

45 filings · 40 insider transactions

Comparable companies

by business, not by industry label

FASTFastenal GWWW. W. Grainger BLDRBuilders FirstSource HDHome Depot

2 more companies list FERG as a comparable

LOWLowe's GPCGenuine Parts

The weekly

One email a week across every stock we cover: 13F filings, insider trades, earnings and new research. It covers the whole market, not just FERG. No account.

About Ferguson Enterprises

Ferguson plc operates as a major supplier of plumbing, heating, and related industrial products throughout the United States and Canada. The company serves a diverse client base, providing essential solutions for residential, commercial, civil/infrastructure, and industrial projects. Its extensive product range encompasses core plumbing and heating supplies, such as pipes, valves, fittings, water heaters, and a variety of kitchen and bathroom fixtures and appliances. Beyond these essentials, Ferguson also provides heating, ventilation, air conditioning, and refrigeration (HVAC/R) equipment, as well as fire sprinkler systems and associated components. The company's offerings further extend to specialized water management products like water meters, irrigation and drainage systems, geosynthetics, and stormwater control solutions. Industrial customers can access a broad selection of flanges, general industrial maintenance, repair, and operations (MRO) products, high-density polyethylene (HDPE) materials, custom fabrication products, water and wastewater treatment solutions, and comprehensive pipe, valve, and fitting (PVF) systems. To support its clientele, Ferguson delivers a comprehensive array of services, including expert consultation, strategic advice, and project management. They offer convenient pro pick-up and delivery options, alongside a suite of online tools. Additional support features include quotation services, jobsite delivery and logistics management, advanced digital estimation and design capabilities, specialized advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) services, and supply chain management with equipment rental. Ferguson plc also facilitates product sales through its online platforms. The company maintains a significant operational footprint, boasting a network of 1,679 branches and 11 distribution centers. Established in 1887, Ferguson plc is headquartered in Wokingham, United Kingdom.

CEO: Kevin Murphy
Headquarters: Newport News, VA
Employees: 35,000
IPO: 2010-01-05

Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.