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O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

ORLY
NASDAQConsumer CyclicalSpecialty RetailCIK 0000898173oreillyauto.comAbout ORLY
Last close · Oct 16, 202689.27+0.77 (+0.87%)
Market cap$72.2B
Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y
71.17
O'Reilly Automotive closed at $89.27 — overvalued by 25% vs model.
42.66the model's range202.47

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for mature & stable — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models
25.09 – 89.54
Wall St. target
103.00 13% below
Above model, 1y
5 of 20 days

Price and model value

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Research on ORLY

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How it is valued

Valued asMature & Stable
Low/slowing growth (~6% recent)Moderate margins (14% net margin)High leverage (D/E 5.0x)
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2025
P/E
30.1×
EV / EBITDA
19.6×
FCF yield
2.1%
Dividend yield, TTM
0.00%
Beta
0.54
Cost of capital (WACC)
7.65%
Full financials

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted
09-29Bernstein · target94.00
07-31D.A. Davidson · target106.00
07-31Roth Capital · target111.00
01-21Morgan Stanley · “Overweight” from “Equal Weight”upgrade
Ratings, targets and estimates

Comparable companies

by business, not by industry label
2 more companies list ORLY as a comparable

The weekly

One email a week across every stock we cover: 13F filings, insider trades, earnings and new research. It covers the whole market, not just ORLY. No account.

About O'Reilly Automotive

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc., along with its subsidiary companies, functions as a leading retail and wholesale provider of automotive aftermarket products, specialized tools, supplies, and accessories across the United States. The company's comprehensive inventory includes both new and reconditioned vehicle hard parts and essential maintenance items. This expansive selection covers critical components such as alternators, batteries, brake system parts, belts, chassis and driveline components, engine parts, fuel pumps, hoses, starters, temperature control systems, and water pumps. Additionally, they supply consumables like antifreeze, appearance products, engine additives, filters, various fluids, lighting solutions, oil, and wiper blades. Their accessory range features items like floor mats, seat covers, and specific truck enhancements. Beyond just parts, O'Reilly's outlets also stock auto body paint and related materials, a wide array of automotive tools, and specialized equipment catering to professional service providers. Customers can also benefit from a suite of value-added services and programs offered in-store. These include recycling initiatives for used oil, oil filters, and batteries; complimentary installation services for batteries, wiper blades, and light bulbs; comprehensive diagnostic testing for batteries, electrical systems, and vehicle modules; retrieval of check engine light codes; a convenient loaner tool program; resurfacing services for brake drums and rotors; custom hydraulic hose fabrication; and professional-grade paint shop mixing with associated materials. O'Reilly's stores serve a diverse clientele, providing an extensive product assortment for both individual do-it-yourself (DIY) mechanics and professional auto repair facilities, covering domestic and imported automobiles, vans, and trucks. As of December 31, 2021, the company maintained a significant retail presence, operating 5,759 stores throughout the United States and an additional 25 locations in Mexico. Established in 1957, O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. is headquartered in Springfield, Missouri.

CEO
Brad W. Beckham
Headquarters
Springfield, MO
Employees
93,072
IPO
1993-04-23
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.