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Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

ODFL
NASDAQIndustrialsTruckingCIK 0000878927odfl.comAbout ODFL
Last close · Oct 16, 2026187.72−1.16 (−0.61%)
Market cap$39.0B
Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y
79.72
Old Dominion closed at $187.72 — overvalued by 135% vs model.
58.93the model's range129.28

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a cyclical company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models
26.28 – 177.05
Wall St. target
230.00 18% below
Above model, 1y
20 of 20 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean
Daily close

Dividends

Quarterly · as of Oct 16, 2026
Yield, trailing 12 months
0.61%
Past 2 years
low 0.42%high 0.87%
Dividends per share, a year at a time
$0.38Aug ’21$0.55Sep ’22$0.75Sep ’23$0.98Sep ’24$1.10Sep ’25$1.15TTM
Dividends / free cash flow, FY2025
24.7%
Raised
8+ years in a row
Growth, 5 yrs
25.1% a year
Last change
+3.6% · Mar 2026
Every payment, with ex-dates · latest $0.29, paid Sep 16, 2026

Research on ODFL

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How it is valued

Valued asCyclical
Revenue declining (~-3% recent)Moderate margins (19% net margin)Highly cyclical earnings
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2025 · chosen for cyclical companies
P/E
38.8×
EV / EBITDA
22.6×
FCF yield
2.4%
Dividend yield, TTM
0.61%
Beta
1.20
Cost of capital (WACC)
9.79%
Full financials

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted
10-08Stifel Nicolaus · target230.00
10-07Wolfe Research · “Peer Perform” from “Underperform”upgrade
10-07BMO Capital · target235.00
10-07Truist Financial · target230.00
Ratings, targets and estimates

Comparable companies

by business, not by industry label
3 more companies list ODFL as a comparable

The weekly

One email a week across every stock we cover: 13F filings, insider trades, earnings and new research. It covers the whole market, not just ODFL. No account.

About Old Dominion

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) serves as a prominent less-than-truckload (LTL) freight carrier operating across the United States and North America. The company's offerings include LTL shipping solutions at regional, inter-regional, and national levels, often featuring expedited delivery options. Furthermore, ODFL provides a variety of supplementary services, such as container drayage, truckload brokerage, and supply chain consultancy. As of December 31, 2021, its extensive infrastructure comprised 10,403 tractors, 27,917 linehaul trailers, and 13,303 pickup and delivery trailers, supported by 3 fleet maintenance centers and 251 service facilities. Founded in 1934, Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. has its corporate headquarters situated in Thomasville, North Carolina.

CEO
Kevin Freeman
Headquarters
Thomasville, NC
Employees
20,591
IPO
1991-10-24
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.