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Norfolk Southern Corporation — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

NSC
NYSEIndustrialsRailroadsCIK 0000702165norfolksouthern.comAbout NSC
Last close · Oct 16, 2026326.92+2.09 (+0.64%)
Market cap$73.4B
Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y
212.84
Norfolk Southern closed at $326.92 — overvalued by 54% vs model.
126.14the model's range478.71

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a mature, steady company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models
39.09 – 369.47
Wall St. target
358.00 9% below
Above model, 1y
17 of 20 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean
Daily close

Dividends

Quarterly · as of Oct 16, 2026
Yield, trailing 12 months
1.65%
Past 2 years
low 1.53%high 2.62%
Dividends per share, a year at a time
$4.01Aug ’21$4.81Aug ’22$5.29Aug ’23$5.40Aug ’24$5.40Aug ’25$5.40TTM
Dividends / free cash flow, FY2025
56.3%
Raised
—
Growth, 5 yrs
6.1% a year
Last change
+8.9% · Feb 2023
Every payment, with ex-dates · latest $1.35, paid Aug 20, 2026

Research on NSC

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How it is valued

Valued asMature & stable
Low/slowing growth (~0% recent)High profitability (24% net margin)Pays dividendsHighly cyclical earnings
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2025 · chosen for mature companies
P/E
25.6×
EV / EBITDA
15.2×
FCF yield
2.9%
Dividend yield, TTM
1.65%
Beta
1.28
Cost of capital (WACC)
8.88%
Full financials

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted
10-02Susquehanna · target350.00
09-24RBC Capital · target330.00
07-27BMO Capital · target355.00
12-11Deutsche Bank · “Hold” from “Buy”downgrade
Ratings, targets and estimates

Comparable companies

by business, not by industry label

The weekly

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About Norfolk Southern

Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC), operating through its various subsidiaries, is a prominent rail transport provider in the United States. The company's core business involves the conveyance of raw materials, semi-finished goods, and completed merchandise across the nation. Its extensive freight services cover a broad spectrum of commodities. This includes a variety of agricultural and forestry products like grains (e.g., soybeans, wheat, corn), fertilizers, animal feeds, and diverse foodstuffs such as oils, flour, sweeteners, beverages, and canned goods, alongside lumber and paper products. NSC also handles a wide range of chemicals, from sulfur and petroleum derivatives to chlorine compounds, plastics, industrial chemicals, and sand. Furthermore, the company moves metals and construction supplies, including steel, aluminum, heavy machinery, cement, aggregates, and specialized military equipment. Transportation of both finished motor vehicles and automotive components is a significant segment, as is the consistent shipment of coal. Beyond its principal freight operations, Norfolk Southern facilitates global trade by connecting with various Atlantic and Gulf Coast ports for overseas cargo. The corporation also manages an expansive intermodal network and offers commuter passenger rail services. As of the close of 2021, the company's vast railway infrastructure extended over roughly 19,300 route miles, serving 22 states and the District of Columbia. Norfolk Southern Corporation, originally incorporated in 1980, is based in Atlanta, Georgia.

CEO
Mark R. George
Headquarters
Atlanta, GA
Employees
19,300
IPO
1982-06-02
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.