United Parcel Service, Inc. — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

UPS

NYSEIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsCIK 0001090727ups.comAbout UPS

Last close · Oct 16, 202697.50−0.33 (−0.34%)

Market cap$73.1B

Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y

157.27

UPS closed at $97.50 — undervalued by 38% vs model.

99.09the model's range352.98

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a cyclical company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models

52.40 – 166.31

Wall St. target

120.00 19% below

Below model, 1y

21 of 21 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean

Daily close

Valuation models

price $97.50 · as of Oct 17, 2026

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5yused99.09 – 352.98157.2738% undervalued DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y108.30 – 358.05166.3141% undervalued DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y79.13 – 224.35145.5733% undervalued DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y93.09 – 241.37155.9737% undervalued P/E · peers111.06 – 213.99111.3912% undervalued P/E · own history89.26 – 116.22100.823% undervalued PEG—146.3733% undervalued EV/EBITDA · peers89.17 – 156.8090.408% overvalued EV/Revenue · peers61.36 – 107.9172.2335% overvalued Earnings power value40.76 – 69.4052.4086% overvalued Dividend discount103.14 – 226.57145.9133% undervalued Wall St. consensus target—120.0019% below Cost of capital (WACC)—8.02%—

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a cyclical company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. How we value a stock walks through every input.

engine pkg:0.1.0

Dividends

Quarterly · as of Oct 16, 2026

Yield, trailing 12 months

6.73%

#6 · Highest dividend yield

Past 2 years

low 4.71%high 7.93%

Dividends per share, a year at a time

Dividends / free cash flow, FY2025: 113.3%
Raised: 16 years in a row
Growth, 5 yrs: 10.0% a year
Last change: +0.6% · Feb 2025

Every payment, with ex-dates · latest $1.64, paid Sep 3, 2026

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How it is valued

Valued asCyclical

Revenue declining (~-1% recent)Moderate margins (6% net margin)Strong dividend yieldHighly cyclical earningsStrong FCF yield (6.5%)

What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2025 · chosen for cyclical companies

P/E

14.9×

EV / EBITDA

7.7×

FCF yield

5.8%

Dividend yield, TTM

6.73%

Beta

1.05

Cost of capital (WACC)

8.02%

On the lists: #6 Highest dividend yield

Full financials

Superinvestors

13F · Q2 2026

Harry BurnSound Shore Management Inc$86.2M Bill MillerMiller Value Partners, LLC$12.5M Robert OlsteinOlstein Capital Management, L.P.$5.1M Arnold Van Den BergVan Den Berg Management I, Inc$2.7M

All 8 holders

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted

10-07Truist Financial · target115.00

07-29Oppenheimer · target117.00

07-29BMO Capital · target115.00

01-08Wolfe Research · “Peer Perform” from “Outperform”downgrade

Ratings, targets and estimates

Recent

filings, insider trades and key news

09-01Form 4 · ARamos Wilfredo · 5,413 sh@ 0.00 09-01Form 4 · ASubramanian Bala · 29,223 sh@ 0.00 09-01Form 4 · ACesarone Nando · 58,446 sh@ 0.00 08-318-K · 5.02Departure/Election of Directors or Officers 08-188-K · 8.01Other Events 08-14424B5Prospectus supplement

67 filings · 40 insider transactions

Comparable companies

by business, not by industry label

FDXFedEx FDXFFedEx Freight EXPDExpeditors International CHRWC.H. Robinson JBHTJ.B. Hunt

1 more company lists UPS as a comparable

ODFLOld Dominion

The weekly

One email a week across every stock we cover: 13F filings, insider trades, earnings and new research. It covers the whole market, not just UPS. No account.

About UPS

United Parcel Service, Inc., a package delivery and logistics provider, offers transportation and delivery services. It operates through two segments, U.S. Domestic Package and International Package. The U.S. Domestic Package segment offers time-definite delivery services for express letters, documents, packages and palletized freight through air and ground services. The International Package segment provides small package operations in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Canada and Latin America, and Asia. The company offers a range of guaranteed day- and time-definite international transportation services; day-definite services; cross-border ground package delivery; contract-only, e-commerce solutions for non-urgent, and cross-border shipments; and international service for urgent and palletized shipments. It also provides international air and ocean freight forwarding, contract logistics, customs brokerage and insurance, mail services, healthcare logistics, distribution, and post-sales services. United Parcel Service, Inc. was founded in 1907 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

CEO: Carol Tomé
Headquarters: Atlanta, GA
Employees: 460,000
IPO: 1999-11-10

Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.