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Union Pacific Corporation — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

UNP
NYSEIndustrialsRailroadsCIK 0000100885up.comAbout UNP
Last close · Oct 16, 2026289.04+0.33 (+0.11%)
Market cap$171.7B
Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y
235.77
Union Pacific closed at $289.04 — overvalued by 23% vs model.
138.84the model's range584.18

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a mature, steady company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models
61.94 – 379.26
Wall St. target
337.00 14% below
Above model, 1y
16 of 21 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean
Daily close

Dividends

Quarterly · as of Oct 16, 2026
Yield, trailing 12 months
1.92%
Past 2 years
low 1.78%high 2.55%
Dividends per share, a year at a time
$4.08Aug ’21$4.96Aug ’22$5.20Aug ’23$5.24Aug ’24$5.40Aug ’25$5.56TTM
Dividends / free cash flow, FY2025
58.8%
Raised
19 years in a row
Growth, 5 yrs
6.4% a year
Last change
+2.9% · Aug 2026
Every payment, with ex-dates · latest $1.42, paid Sep 30, 2026

Research on UNP

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How it is valued

Valued asMature & stable
Low/slowing growth (~1% recent)High profitability (29% net margin)Pays dividendsHighly cyclical earnings
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2025 · chosen for mature companies
P/E
24.1×
EV / EBITDA
15.6×
FCF yield
3.2%
Dividend yield, TTM
1.92%
Beta
0.95
Cost of capital (WACC)
8.30%
Full financials

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted
10-15Raymond James · target350.00
09-24RBC Capital · target326.00
09-16UBS · “Buy” from “Neutral”upgrade
09-16UBS · target339.00
Ratings, targets and estimates

Comparable companies

by business, not by industry label
1 more company lists UNP as a comparable
Side by side:vs CSX

The weekly

One email a week across every stock we cover: 13F filings, insider trades, earnings and new research. It covers the whole market, not just UNP. No account.

About Union Pacific

Union Pacific Corporation, a prominent American railway enterprise, conducts its primary operations through its subsidiary, Union Pacific Railroad Company. The company provides extensive freight transportation services for a wide array of commodities. Its diverse cargo includes agricultural products like grain, fertilizers, and refrigerated foods; energy resources such as coal, renewables, petroleum, and liquid petroleum gases; and industrial materials encompassing construction products, chemicals, plastics, forest products, metals, ores, soda ash, and sand. Union Pacific also facilitates the movement of finished automobiles, automotive parts, and general merchandise in intermodal containers, serving a varied clientele that spans agricultural processors, energy producers, and industrial manufacturers. As of December 31, 2021, the company's vast rail network stretched 32,452 route miles, strategically connecting major ports along the Pacific and Gulf Coasts with crucial gateways throughout the Midwestern and Eastern United States. Established in 1862, Union Pacific Corporation is headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska.

CEO
Vincenzo James Vena
Headquarters
Omaha, NE
Employees
28,716
IPO
1980-01-02
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.