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CSX Corporation — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

CSX
NASDAQIndustrialsRailroadsCIK 0000277948csx.comAbout CSX
Last close · Oct 16, 202648.68−0.01 (−0.02%)
Market cap$90.2B
Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y
25.05
CSX closed at $48.68 — overvalued by 94% vs model.
14.19the model's range59.23

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a mature, steady company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models
8.43 – 44.47
Wall St. target
53.50 9% below
Above model, 1y
19 of 20 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean
Daily close

Dividends

Quarterly · as of Oct 16, 2026
Yield, trailing 12 months
1.13%
Past 2 years
low 1.01%high 1.84%
Dividends per share, a year at a time
$0.37Aug ’21$0.39Aug ’22$0.43Aug ’23$0.47Aug ’24$0.51Aug ’25$0.55TTM
Dividends / free cash flow, FY2025
56.8%
Raised
21 years in a row
Growth, 5 yrs
8.4% a year
Last change
+7.7% · Feb 2026
Every payment, with ex-dates · latest $0.14, paid Sep 15, 2026

Research on CSX

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How it is valued

Valued asMature & stable
Revenue declining (~-2% recent)High profitability (21% net margin)Pays dividendsHighly cyclical earnings
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2025 · chosen for mature companies
P/E
31.6×
EV / EBITDA
18.5×
FCF yield
1.9%
Dividend yield, TTM
1.13%
Beta
1.20
Cost of capital (WACC)
8.77%
Full financials

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted
10-15Raymond James · target53.00
09-24RBC Capital · target53.00
07-31Argus Research · target56.00
07-14Susquehanna · “Positive” from “Neutral”upgrade
Ratings, targets and estimates

Comparable companies

by business, not by industry label
Side by side:vs UNP

The weekly

One email a week across every stock we cover: 13F filings, insider trades, earnings and new research. It covers the whole market, not just CSX. No account.

About CSX

CSX Corporation, operating through its subsidiaries, stands as a leading provider of rail-based cargo transportation services. The company offers a wide range of services, including general rail freight, the movement of intermodal containers and trailers, and specialized transport solutions such as efficient rail-to-truck transfers and the handling of bulk commodities. CSX facilitates the shipment of a diverse array of goods, encompassing industrial chemicals, agricultural and food products, automotive components and finished vehicles, minerals, timber products, fertilizers, and various metals and heavy equipment. Additionally, it plays a crucial role in energy supply chains, transporting coal, coke, and iron ore to power generation facilities, steel manufacturers, and industrial plants, and also manages the export of coal via deep-water port access. The company's intermodal operations leverage a robust network of approximately 30 terminals to transport manufactured consumer goods in containers. This also includes drayage services, managing the initial pickup and final delivery of intermodal freight. For the automotive industry, CSX provides dedicated distribution centers and storage locations, and extends its reach to clients without direct rail access by orchestrating transfers of products like plastics and ethanol from rail to road. CSX's substantial infrastructure features an extensive rail network spanning approximately 19,500 route miles. This network strategically connects numerous population centers across 23 states east of the Mississippi River, the District of Columbia, and extends into the Canadian provinces of Ontario and Quebec. Powering these operations, CSX owns and leases around 3,500 locomotives. Its rail lines also provide direct connections to various production and distribution facilities, enhancing supply chain efficiency. Established in 1978, CSX Corporation has its headquarters located in Jacksonville, Florida.

CEO
Stephen F. Angel
Headquarters
Jacksonville, FL
Employees
22,200
IPO
1980-11-03
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.