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FedEx Corporation — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

FDX
NYSEIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsCIK 0001048911fedex.comAbout FDX
Last close · Oct 16, 2026293.55−1.99 (−0.67%)
Market cap$69.5B
Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y
189.42
FedEx closed at $293.55 — overvalued by 55% vs model.
116.76the model's range408.48

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a cyclical company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models
77.12 – 582.96
Wall St. target
330.00 11% below
Above model, 1y
5 of 20 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean
Daily close

Dividends

Quarterly · as of Oct 16, 2026
Yield, trailing 12 months
1.63%
Past 2 years
low 1.38%high 2.78%
Dividends per share, a year at a time
$2.25Sep ’21$3.06Sep ’22$3.88Sep ’23$4.25Sep ’24$4.55Sep ’25$4.78TTM
Dividends / free cash flow, FY2026
26.9%
Raised
5 years in a row
Growth, 5 yrs
16.2% a year
Last change
+4.5% · Jun 2026
Every payment, with ex-dates · latest $1.22, paid Oct 1, 2026

Research on FDX

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How it is valued

Valued asCyclical
Low/slowing growth (~4% recent)Thin margins (4.7% net margin)Pays dividendsHighly cyclical earningsStrong FCF yield (7.4%)
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2026 · chosen for cyclical companies
P/E
15.8×
EV / EBITDA
7.4×
FCF yield
7.3%
Dividend yield, TTM
1.63%
Beta
1.33
Cost of capital (WACC)
8.45%
Full financials

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted
09-29Wells Fargo · target140.00
09-09Evercore ISI · target350.00
08-28Raymond James · target330.00
05-27JP Morgan · “Overweight” from “Neutral”upgrade
Ratings, targets and estimates

Comparable companies

by business, not by industry label
1 more company lists FDX as a comparable

The weekly

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About FedEx

FedEx Corporation is a prominent global entity that delivers an extensive array of services encompassing transportation, e-commerce solutions, and diverse business support, catering to clients both within the United States and across international borders. Its operational structure is divided into several key segments: The FedEx Express division specializes in expedited shipping, offering rapid package and freight delivery, crucial time-sensitive logistics, and comprehensive cross-border, technological, and e-commerce transportation services. FedEx Ground focuses on reliable, scheduled delivery services for both commercial clients and individual households. The FedEx Freight unit manages less-than-truckload (LTL) cargo shipments, supported by a significant infrastructure that, as of May 31, 2022, included approximately 30,000 vehicles and 400 service centers. FedEx Services provides essential internal support functions across the company, such as sales, marketing, information technology, communications, customer and technical assistance, billing, collections, and other vital administrative operations. Finally, the Corporate, Other, and Eliminations segment broadens FedEx's offerings to include integrated supply chain management, specialized transportation, customs brokerage, global ocean and air freight forwarding, document and business services, and convenient retail access points for its package delivery operations. Established in 1971, FedEx Corporation maintains its headquarters in Memphis, Tennessee.

CEO
Rajesh Subramaniam
Headquarters
Memphis, TN
Employees
530,000
IPO
1978-04-12
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.