Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

HLT

NYSEConsumer CyclicalTravel LodgingCIK 0001585689hilton.comAbout HLT

Last close · Oct 16, 2026345.09+2.10 (+0.61%)

Market cap$77.7B

Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y

124.73

Hilton Worldwide closed at $345.09 — overvalued by 177% vs model.

69.37the model's range301.99

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for mature & stable — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models

11.49 – 362.36

Wall St. target

363.00 5% below

Above model, 1y

17 of 20 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean

Daily close

Valuation models

price $345.09 · as of Oct 17, 2026

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5yused69.37 – 301.99124.73177% overvalued DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y84.04 – 327.90142.78142% overvalued DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y99.42 – 222.93156.16121% overvalued DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y107.72 – 252.57169.87103% overvalued P/E · peers125.10 – 177.03147.95133% overvalued P/E · own history303.81 – 424.67362.365% undervalued PEG—191.4680% overvalued EV/EBITDA · peers121.52 – 203.28130.63164% overvalued EV/Revenue · peers71.25 – 159.52120.18187% overvalued Earnings power value14.73 – 40.8925.561250% overvalued Dividend discount8.06 – 18.1811.492903% overvalued Wall St. consensus target—363.005% below Cost of capital (WACC)—8.71%—

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for mature & stable — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. How we value a stock walks through every input. The price is 177% above the model value: the models see only the filed business, and a company priced on businesses with no revenue line yet is better taken apart, as Tesla is.

engine pkg:0.1.0

Dividends

Quarterly · as of Oct 16, 2026

Yield, trailing 12 months

0.17%

Past 2 years

low 0.17%high 0.30%

Dividends per share, a year at a time

Dividends / free cash flow, FY2025: 7.1%
Raised: —
Growth, 4 yrs: 0.0% a year
Last change: —

Every payment, with ex-dates · latest $0.15, paid Sep 30, 2026

Research on HLT

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How it is valued

Valued asMature & Stable

Low/slowing growth (~8% recent)Decelerated from ~23% 5y CAGRModerate margins (12% net margin)Highly cyclical earningsHigh leverage (D/E 5.0x)

What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2025

P/E

56.4×

EV / EBITDA

31.1×

FCF yield

2.4%

Dividend yield, TTM

0.17%

Beta

1.10

Cost of capital (WACC)

8.71%

On the lists: #42 Near 52-week highs

Full financials

Superinvestors

13F · Q2 2026

Bill NygrenHarris Associates L P$28.2M AltaRockAltaRock Partners LP$5.0M BridgewaterBridgewater Associates, LP$1.1M

All 3 holders

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted

10-16Barclays · target384.00

10-12Morgan Stanley · target336.00

09-10Truist Financial · target316.00

07-21Evercore ISI Group · “Outperform” from “In Line”upgrade

Ratings, targets and estimates

Recent

filings, insider trades and key news

09-30Form 4 · ASTEENLAND DOUGLAS M · 9 sh@ 0.00 09-30Form 4 · ASMITH ELIZABETH A · 9 sh@ 0.00 09-30Form 4 · AMAYER MARISSA A · 1 sh@ 0.00 09-30Form 4 · AMabus Raymond E · 6 sh@ 0.00 09-30Form 4 · AHealey Melanie · 6 sh@ 0.00 07-2810-QQuarterly report

53 filings · 40 insider transactions

Comparable companies

by business, not by industry label

MARMarriott International HSTHost Hotels & Resorts ABNBAirbnb BKNGBooking Holdings EXPEExpedia Group RCLRoyal Caribbean Group

5 more companies list HLT as a comparable

CCLCarnival LVSLas Vegas Sands MGMMGM Resorts NCLHNorwegian Cruise Line Holdings WYNNWynn Resorts

The weekly

One email a week across every stock we cover: 13F filings, insider trades, earnings and new research. It covers the whole market, not just HLT. No account.

About Hilton Worldwide

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc., a hospitality company, engages in managing, franchising, and leasing hotels and resorts. It operates in two segments, Management and Franchise, and Ownership. The company engages in the hotel management and licensing of its brand names, trademarks, and service marks. It operates a brand portfolio of luxury, lifestyle, full service, focused service, all-suites hotel, and timeshare under the Waldorf Astoria Hotels & Resorts, LXR Hotels & Resorts, Conrad Hotels & Resorts, Signia by Hilton, NoMad, Canopy by Hilton, Graduate by Hilton, Tempo by Hilton, Motto by Hilton, Hilton Hotels & Resorts, DoubleTree by Hilton, Curio Collection by Hilton, Tapestry Collection by Hilton, Outset Collection by Hilton, Embassy Suites by Hilton, Homewood Suites by Hilton, Home2 Suites by Hilton, LivSmart Studios by Hilton, Hilton Garden Inn, Hampton by Hilton, Tru by Hilton, Spark by Hilton, Hilton Grand Vacations, Small Luxury Hotels of the World, AutoCamp, and Hilton Honors brand names. The company has operations in North America, South America, and Central America, including various Caribbean nations; Europe, the Middle East, and Africa; and the Asia Pacific. Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in McLean, Virginia.

CEO: Christopher J. Nassetta
Headquarters: McLean, VA
Employees: 182,000
IPO: 2013-12-12

Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.