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Expedia Group, Inc. — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

EXPE
NASDAQConsumer CyclicalTravel ServicesCIK 0001324424expediagroup.comAbout EXPE
Last close · Oct 16, 2026288.95−2.92 (−1.00%)
Market cap$33.1B
Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y
162.40
Expedia Group closed at $288.95 — overvalued by 78% vs model.
111.17the model's range306.83

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for mature & stable — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models
18.33 – 652.62
Wall St. target
325.00 11% below
Above model, 1y
9 of 20 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean
Daily close

Dividends

Quarterly · as of Oct 16, 2026
Yield, trailing 12 months
0.64%
Past 2 years
low 0.52%high 0.91%
Dividends per share, a year at a time
$1.54Aug ’25$1.84TTM
Dividends / free cash flow, FY2025
6.4%
Raised
—
Growth, 1 yr
19.5% a year
Last change
+20.0% · Mar 2026
Every payment, with ex-dates · latest $0.48, paid Sep 17, 2026

Research on EXPE

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How it is valued

Valued asMature & Stable
Low/slowing growth (~7% recent)Decelerated from ~23% 5y CAGRModerate margins (9% net margin)Highly cyclical earningsHigh leverage (D/E 4.8x)Strong FCF yield (9.4%)
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2025
P/E
29.5×
EV / EBITDA
12.2×
FCF yield
8.6%
Dividend yield, TTM
0.64%
Beta
1.36
Cost of capital (WACC)
9.28%
Full financials

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted
10-07Wells Fargo · target275.00
09-30Truist Financial · target288.00
09-16Morgan Stanley · target235.00
03-30Jefferies · “Buy” from “Hold”upgrade
Ratings, targets and estimates

The weekly

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About Expedia Group

Expedia Group, Inc. operates as a leading online travel company, serving customers both within the United States and across international markets. The enterprise structures its extensive operations into three primary divisions: Retail, Business-to-Business (B2B), and Trivago. Its comprehensive brand portfolio caters to diverse travel needs. Key retail brands include Brand Expedia, a full-service online travel platform offering localized websites; Hotels.com, specializing in the marketing and distribution of lodging accommodations; and Vrbo, an online marketplace dedicated to alternative accommodation options. Other prominent travel booking websites under its umbrella are Orbitz, Travelocity, and CheapTickets. For the EMEA region, ebookers functions as an online travel agent, presenting travelers with a broad spectrum of choices, while Hotwire provides various travel booking services. Complementing these are CarRentals.com, an online car rental booking service; Classic Vacations, a specialist in luxury travel experiences; and Expedia Cruise, which guides travelers in booking cruises. In the B2B sphere, Expedia Partner Solutions offers travel and non-travel vertical services to a wide array of clients, including corporate travel management firms, airlines, travel agents, online retailers, and financial institutions. Egencia, another key brand, focuses specifically on delivering corporate travel management services. Further extending its reach, the portfolio also features Trivago, a hotel metasearch website that refers users to online travel companies and service providers, alongside Expedia Group Media Solutions. The company also provides online travel services through several regional brands like Wotif.com, lastminute.com.au, travel.com.au, Wotif.co.nz, and lastminute.co.nz. Beyond brand-specific offerings, Expedia Group, Inc. delivers loyalty programs, a wide array of hotel and alternative accommodation choices, and advertising and media services. Serving both individual leisure travelers and corporate clients, the company was initially founded as Expedia, Inc. in 1996. It subsequently rebranded to Expedia Group, Inc. in March 2018, and its headquarters are located in Seattle, Washington.

CEO
Ariane Gorin
Headquarters
Seattle, WA
Employees
16,000
IPO
2005-07-21
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.