Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

RCL

NYSEConsumer CyclicalTravel ServicesCIK 0000884887rclinvestor.comAbout RCL

Last close · Oct 16, 2026277.62−2.39 (−0.85%)

Market cap$74.3B

Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y

79.03

Royal Caribbean Group closed at $277.62 — overvalued by 251% vs model.

36.84the model's range176.98

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a cyclical company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models

60.34 – 369.67

Wall St. target

337.00 18% below

Above model, 1y

8 of 20 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean

Daily close

Valuation models

price $277.62 · as of Oct 17, 2026

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5yused36.84 – 176.9879.03251% overvalued DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y64.65 – 235.17116.43138% overvalued DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y139.98 – 420.15268.473% overvalued DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y139.32 – 443.07268.593% overvalued P/E · peers188.97 – 316.86226.6223% overvalued P/E · own history318.45 – 440.27369.6725% undervalued PEG—289.724% undervalued EV/EBITDA · peers128.80 – 255.38164.1969% overvalued EV/Revenue · peers73.63 – 163.1476.18264% overvalued Dividend discount45.20 – 85.0760.34360% overvalued Wall St. consensus target—337.0018% below Cost of capital (WACC)—10.02%—

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a cyclical company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. How we value a stock walks through every input. The price is 251% above the model value: the models see only the filed business, and a company priced on businesses with no revenue line yet is better taken apart, as Tesla is.

engine pkg:0.1.0

Dividends

Quarterly · as of Oct 16, 2026

Yield, trailing 12 months

1.98%

Past 2 years

low 0.67%high 2.39%

Dividends per share, a year at a time

Dividends / free cash flow, FY2025: 66.7%
Raised: 1 years in a row
Growth, 1 yr: 80.3% a year
Last change: +50.0% · Mar 2026

Every payment, with ex-dates · latest $1.50, paid Oct 8, 2026

Research on RCL

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How it is valued

Valued asCyclical

Moderate growth (~14% recent)High profitability (24% net margin)Pays dividendsHighly cyclical earningsHigh leverage (D/E 2.1x)

What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2025 · chosen for cyclical companies

P/E

17.8×

EV / EBITDA

13.7×

FCF yield

1.6%

Dividend yield, TTM

1.98%

Beta

1.82

Cost of capital (WACC)

10.02%

Full financials

Superinvestors

13F · Q2 2026

John RogersAriel Investments, LLC$21.3M BridgewaterBridgewater Associates, LP$408,661

All 2 holders

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted

10-12Wells Fargo · target358.00

10-08Jefferies · “Buy” from “Hold”upgrade

10-08Jefferies · target330.00

10-07Barclays · target337.00

Ratings, targets and estimates

Recent

filings, insider trades and key news

09-238-K · 8.01Other Events 08-208-K · 1.01Entry into a Material Agreement 08-10424B5Prospectus supplement 08-078-K · 1.01Entry into a Material Agreement 08-06424B5Prospectus supplement 07-31Form 4 · ABunch Tara · 683 sh@ 0.00

72 filings · 40 insider transactions

Comparable companies

by business, not by industry label

CCLCarnival NCLHNorwegian Cruise Line Holdings MARMarriott International HLTHilton Worldwide DALDelta Air Lines UALUnited Airlines Holdings

1 more company lists RCL as a comparable

LUVSouthwest Airlines

Side by side:vs CCL vs NCLH

The weekly

One email a week across every stock we cover: 13F filings, insider trades, earnings and new research. It covers the whole market, not just RCL. No account.

About Royal Caribbean Group

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. is a prominent global operator within the cruise sector. The company manages several well-known cruise lines, such as Royal Caribbean International, Celebrity Cruises, Azamara, and Silversea Cruises. Through these brands, it offers a wide array of voyages that call upon approximately 1,000 different destinations across the globe. As of February 25, 2022, its expansive fleet comprised 61 vessels. Established in 1968, the company's corporate headquarters are situated in Miami, Florida.

CEO: Jason T. Liberty
Headquarters: Miami, FL
Employees: 107,975
IPO: 1993-04-28

Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.