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Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

NCLH
NYSEConsumer CyclicalTravel ServicesCIK 0001513761nclhltd.comAbout NCLH
Last close · Oct 16, 202615.05−0.34 (−2.21%)
Market cap$6.9B
Model value · P/E · peers
18.49
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings closed at $15.05 — undervalued by 19% vs model.
14.71the model's range24.39

P/E · peers leads because DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y could not lead: the cash-flow gate is shut (an operating loss, or three years of free cash flow summing below zero). From its peers' median P/E.

Other models
25.62 – 67.12
Wall St. target
17.00 11% below
Below model, 1y
20 of 20 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean
Daily close

Valuation models

price $15.05 · as of Oct 17, 2026

P/E · peers leads because DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y could not lead: the cash-flow gate is shut (an operating loss, or three years of free cash flow summing below zero). How we value a stock walks through every input.

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Research on NCLH

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How it is valued

Valued asCyclical
Low/slowing growth (~7% recent)Decelerated from ~50% 5y CAGRThin margins (4.3% net margin)Highly cyclical earningsHigh leverage (D/E 6.6x)Negative free cash flow
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2025 · chosen for cyclical companies
P/E
16.4×
EV / EBITDA
5.6×
FCF yield
-17.1%
Dividend yield, TTM
0.00%
Beta
1.96
Cost of capital (WACC)
8.02%
Full financials

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted
09-24Truist Financial · target16.00
08-18Mizuho · “Neutral” from “Outperform”downgrade
08-18UBS · target20.00
08-18Canaccord Genuity · target45.00
Ratings, targets and estimates

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About Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH), along with its subsidiary companies, operates as a major global cruise enterprise. Its operations span North America, Europe, the Asia-Pacific region, and other international markets. The company manages a portfolio of three distinct cruise brands: Norwegian Cruise Line, Oceania Cruises, and Regent Seven Seas Cruises. NCLH offers an extensive range of voyages, from brief three-day excursions to lengthy 180-day expeditions. These itineraries explore a comprehensive list of destinations worldwide, including Scandinavia, Russia, the Mediterranean, and the Greek Isles; the Alaskan wilderness, Canada and New England; Hawaii, Asia, Tahiti, and the South Pacific; Australia and New Zealand; Africa, India, and South America; as well as the Panama Canal and the Caribbean. As of December 31, 2021, the company commanded a fleet of 28 ships, providing approximately 59,150 berths for guests. Its travel products are distributed through multiple channels, including independent retail/travel advisors, direct sales onboard its ships, and specialized services for meetings, incentives, and private charters. Founded in 1966, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. maintains its corporate headquarters in Miami, Florida.

CEO
John W. Chidsey
Headquarters
Miami, FL
Employees
44,500
IPO
2013-01-18
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.