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United Airlines Holdings, Inc. — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

UAL
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesCIK 0000100517united.comAbout UAL
Last close · Oct 16, 202696.10−5.21 (−5.14%)
Market cap$31.2B
Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y
133.93
United Airlines Holdings closed at $96.10 — undervalued by 28% vs model.
74.19the model's range334.62

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a cyclical company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models
89.01 – 282.15
Wall St. target
152.50 37% below
Below model, 1y
20 of 20 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean
Daily close

Research on UAL

1 post
Delta vs United by the numbers
Delta and United earn almost the same margin on a dollar of revenue. The market prices them apart, and United carries twice the leverage, from the 2026 filings.
Allen Yan · · 4 min · 中文
Studied UAL from its filings? Guest posts are reviewed before they go live.Write about UAL →

How it is valued

Valued asCyclical
Low/slowing growth (~5% recent)Decelerated from ~31% 5y CAGRModerate margins (6% net margin)Highly cyclical earningsStrong FCF yield (8.2%)
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2025 · chosen for cyclical companies
P/E
9.4×
EV / EBITDA
6.2×
FCF yield
8.1%
Dividend yield, TTM
0.00%
Beta
1.30
Cost of capital (WACC)
8.03%
On the lists: #13 Lowest P/E
Full financials

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted
10-06Wells Fargo · target160.00
09-28BMO Capital · target140.00
09-24UBS · target146.00
05-19UBS · “Buy” from “Neutral”upgrade
Ratings, targets and estimates

Comparable companies

by business, not by industry label
1 more company lists UAL as a comparable
Side by side:vs DAL

The weekly

One email a week across every stock we cover: 13F filings, insider trades, earnings and new research. It covers the whole market, not just UAL. No account.

About United Airlines Holdings

United Airlines Holdings, Inc., through its various subsidiaries, delivers air travel solutions on a global scale. Its vast network extends across North America, Europe, Asia, Africa, the Pacific, the Middle East, and Latin America, facilitating the movement of both passengers and freight. The company operates these services using a combination of its primary and regional aircraft fleets. Beyond its core transportation offerings, United also provides specialized support to external clients, encompassing catering, ground handling, aviation training, and aircraft maintenance. Established in 1968, the enterprise has its principal offices in Chicago, Illinois. Notably, it adopted its current name, United Airlines Holdings, Inc., in June 2019, having previously operated as United Continental Holdings, Inc.

CEO
J. Scott Kirby
Headquarters
Chicago, IL
Employees
117,500
IPO
2006-02-06
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.