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Delta Air Lines, Inc. — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

DAL
NYSEIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesCIK 0000027904delta.comAbout DAL
Last close · Oct 16, 202675.37−2.71 (−3.47%)
Market cap$49.6B
Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y
77.39
Delta Air Lines closed at $75.37 — undervalued by 3% vs model.
51.39the model's range146.27

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a cyclical company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models
9.80 – 262.02
Wall St. target
100.00 25% below
Below model, 1y
16 of 20 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean
Daily close

Dividends

Quarterly · as of Oct 16, 2026
Yield, trailing 12 months
1.07%
Past 2 years
low 0.72%high 1.53%
Dividends per share, a year at a time
$1.01Oct ’23$0.50Oct ’24$0.68Oct ’25$0.81TTM
Dividends / free cash flow, FY2025
11.4%
Raised
2 years in a row
Growth, 3 yrs
-7.1% a year
Last change
+14.7% · Jul 2026
Every payment, with ex-dates · latest $0.215, paid Nov 5, 2026

Research on DAL

1 post
Delta vs United by the numbers
Delta and United earn almost the same margin on a dollar of revenue. The market prices them apart, and United carries twice the leverage, from the 2026 filings.
Allen Yan · · 4 min · 中文
Studied DAL from its filings? Guest posts are reviewed before they go live.Write about DAL →

How it is valued

Valued asCyclical
Low/slowing growth (~4% recent)Decelerated from ~30% 5y CAGRModerate margins (8% net margin)Highly cyclical earningsStrong FCF yield (7.8%)
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2025 · chosen for cyclical companies
P/E
9.8×
EV / EBITDA
7.3×
FCF yield
7.9%
Dividend yield, TTM
1.07%
Beta
1.34
Cost of capital (WACC)
9.11%
On the lists: #16 Lowest P/E
Full financials

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted
10-12BMO Capital · target105.00
10-12Argus Research · target95.00
10-12Seaport Global · target100.00
07-06Raymond James · “Outperform” from “Strong Buy”downgrade
Ratings, targets and estimates

Comparable companies

by business, not by industry label
1 more company lists DAL as a comparable
Side by side:vs UAL

The weekly

One email a week across every stock we cover: 13F filings, insider trades, earnings and new research. It covers the whole market, not just DAL. No account.

About Delta Air Lines

Delta Air Lines, Inc. provides scheduled air transportation for passengers and cargo in the United States and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Airline and Refinery. Its domestic network centered on core hubs in Atlanta, Detroit, Minneapolis-St. Paul, and Salt Lake City, as well as coastal hub positions in Boston, Los Angeles, New York-LaGuardia, New York-JFK, and Seattle; and international network centered on hubs and market presence in Amsterdam, Bogota, Lima, Mexico City, London-Heathrow, Paris-Charles de Gaulle, Santiago (Chile), Sao Paulo, Seoul-Incheon, and Tokyo. It also provides aircraft maintenance and engineering support, repair, and overhaul services; and vacation packages. The company operates through a fleet of approximately 1,314 aircraft. Delta Air Lines, Inc. was founded in 1924 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

CEO
Edward H. Bastian
Headquarters
Atlanta, GA
Employees
100,000
IPO
2007-05-03
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.