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Constellation Brands, Inc. — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

STZ
NYSEConsumer DefensiveBeverages - AlcoholicCIK 0000016918cbrands.comAbout STZ
Last close · Oct 16, 2026131.35+1.77 (+1.37%)
Market cap$22.2B
Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y
125.36
Constellation Brands closed at $131.35 — overvalued by 5% vs model.
50.01the model's range318.77

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a mature, steady company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models
24.62 – 218.90
Wall St. target
147.50 11% below
Above model, 1y
5 of 20 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean
Daily close

Dividends

Quarterly · as of Oct 16, 2026
Yield, trailing 12 months
3.12%
Past 2 years
low 1.47%high 3.65%
Dividends per share, a year at a time
$3.02Aug ’21$3.12Aug ’22$3.38Aug ’23$3.80Aug ’24$4.06Jul ’25$4.10TTM
Dividends / free cash flow, FY2026
39.9%
Raised
10+ years in a row
Growth, 5 yrs
6.3% a year
Last change
+1.0% · Apr 2026
Every payment, with ex-dates · latest $1.03, paid Aug 13, 2026

Research on STZ

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How it is valued

Valued asMature & stable
Revenue declining (~-4% recent)Moderate margins (18% net margin)Strong dividend yieldHighly cyclical earningsStrong FCF yield (8.1%)
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2026 · chosen for mature companies
P/E
—
EV / EBITDA
10.4×
FCF yield
7.8%
Dividend yield, TTM
3.12%
Beta
0.43
Cost of capital (WACC)
6.39%
Full financials

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted
10-08Freedom Broker · “Buy” from “Hold”upgrade
10-08HSBC · “Hold” from “Buy”downgrade
10-08Piper Sandler · target125.00
10-08Needham · target150.00
Ratings, targets and estimates

Comparable companies

by business, not by industry label
1 more company lists STZ as a comparable

The weekly

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About Constellation Brands

Constellation Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces, imports, markets, and sells beer, wine, and spirits in the United States, Canada, Mexico, New Zealand, and Italy. The company offers beer under the Corona Extra, Corona Familiar, Corona Hard Seltzer, Corona Light, Corona Non-Alcoholic, Corona Premier, Corona Refresca, Modelo Especial, Modelo Chelada, Modelo Negra, Modelo Oro, Victoria, Vicky Chamoy, and Pacifico brands. It also offers wine under the Cook’s California Champagne, Kim Crawford, Meiomi, Mount Veeder, Ruffino, SIMI, My Favorite Neighbor, Robert Mondavi Winery, Schrader, and The Prisoner Wine Company brands; and spirits under the Casa Noble, Copper & Kings, High West, Mi CAMPO, Nelson’s Green Brier, and SVEDKA brands. The company provides its products to wholesale distributors, retailers, on-premise locations, and state alcohol beverage control agencies. Constellation Brands, Inc. was founded in 1945 and is based in Rochester, New York.

CEO
Nicholas Fink
Headquarters
Rochester, NY
Employees
9,400
IPO
1992-03-17
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.