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Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

KDP
NASDAQConsumer DefensiveBeverages - Non-AlcoholicCIK 0001418135keurigdrpepper.comAbout KDP
Last close · Oct 16, 202634.62+0.44 (+1.29%)
Market cap$47.1B
Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y
80.52
Keurig Dr Pepper closed at $34.62 — undervalued by 57% vs model.
44.49the model's range212.91

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a mature, steady company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models
16.60 – 86.98
Wall St. target
39.00 11% below
Below model, 1y
20 of 20 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean
Daily close

Dividends

Quarterly · as of Oct 16, 2026
Yield, trailing 12 months
2.66%
Past 2 years
low 2.26%high 3.64%
Dividends per share, a year at a time
$0.68Sep ’21$0.76Sep ’22$0.82Sep ’23$0.88Sep ’24$0.92Sep ’25$0.92TTM
Dividends / free cash flow, FY2025
83.1%
Raised
5 years in a row
Growth, 5 yrs
6.4% a year
Last change
+7.0% · Sep 2024
Every payment, with ex-dates · latest $0.23, paid Oct 9, 2026

Research on KDP

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How it is valued

Valued asMature & stable
Low/slowing growth (~6% recent)Moderate margins (13% net margin)Pays dividendsHighly cyclical earnings
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2025 · chosen for mature companies
P/E
22.6×
EV / EBITDA
14.8×
FCF yield
3.2%
Dividend yield, TTM
2.66%
Beta
0.41
Cost of capital (WACC)
6.66%
Full financials

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted
08-20Morgan Stanley · target38.00
08-13HSBC · “Buy” from “Hold”upgrade
08-13HSBC · target40.00
08-10Barclays · target38.00
Ratings, targets and estimates

The weekly

One email a week across every stock we cover: 13F filings, insider trades, earnings and new research. It covers the whole market, not just KDP. No account.

About Keurig Dr Pepper

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. is a prominent beverage firm with operations spanning both the United States and global markets. The company structures its business across four primary divisions: Coffee Systems, Packaged Beverages, Beverage Concentrates, and Latin America Beverages. Its Coffee Systems division is responsible for the production and distribution of an array of finished products linked to its coffee brewing systems, including K-Cup single-serve pods, brewing machines, and specialized coffee blends. Brewers are offered for sale via external distributors, various retail outlets, and directly through its official website, keurig.com. The Packaged Beverages segment focuses on manufacturing and distributing its proprietary packaged drink labels. It also undertakes contract manufacturing for a diverse range of private label and up-and-coming beverage brands, in addition to handling distribution for its partner brands' packaged offerings. The Beverage Concentrates division produces and markets liquid concentrates for a wide portfolio of well-known brands such as Dr Pepper, Canada Dry, A&W, 7UP, Sunkist, Squirt, Big Red, RC Cola, Vernors, Snapple, Mott's, Bai, Hawaiian Punch, Clamato, Yoo-Hoo, Core, ReaLemon, evian, Vita Coco, and Mr and Mrs T mixers; this segment also processes these concentrates into syrup form. In Latin America, the Beverages segment handles the production and distribution of sparkling mineral water, flavored carbonated soft drinks, purified bottled water, and vegetable juice products, marketed under brand names like Peñafiel, Clamato, Squirt, Dr Pepper, Crush, and Aguafiel. Its extensive client base includes retailers, bottling and distribution networks, restaurants, hotel groups, office coffee service providers, and individual consumers. Established in 1981, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. maintains its corporate headquarters in Burlington, Massachusetts.

CEO
Timothy Cofer
Headquarters
Frisco, TX
Employees
30,600
IPO
2008-05-07
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.