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The J. M. Smucker Company — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

SJM
NYSEConsumer DefensivePackaged FoodsCIK 0000091419jmsmucker.comAbout SJM
Last close · Oct 16, 2026127.43+1.50 (+1.19%)
Market cap$13.6B
Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y
26.65
J.M. Smucker closed at $127.43 — overvalued by 378% vs model.
26.65the model's range128.55

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a mature, steady company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models
30.75 – 70.41
Wall St. target
142.00 10% below
Above model, 1y
20 of 20 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean
Daily close

Valuation models

price $127.43 · as of Oct 17, 2026

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a mature, steady company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. How we value a stock walks through every input. The price is 378% above the model value: the models see only the filed business, and a company priced on businesses with no revenue line yet is better taken apart, as Tesla is.

engine pkg:0.1.0

Dividends

Quarterly · as of Oct 16, 2026
Yield, trailing 12 months
3.47%
Past 2 years
low 3.34%high 4.89%
Dividends per share, a year at a time
$3.69Aug ’21$3.99Aug ’22$4.12Aug ’23$4.26Aug ’24$4.34Aug ’25$4.42TTM
Dividends / free cash flow, FY2026
40.2%
Raised
28 years in a row
Growth, 5 yrs
3.7% a year
Last change
+1.8% · Aug 2026
Every payment, with ex-dates · latest $1.12, paid Sep 1, 2026

Research on SJM

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How it is valued

Valued asMature & stable
Low/slowing growth (~5% recent)Currently unprofitableStrong dividend yieldHighly cyclical earningsStrong FCF yield (8.5%)
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2026 · chosen for mature companies
P/E
—
EV / EBITDA
23.4×
FCF yield
8.5%
Dividend yield, TTM
3.47%
Beta
0.27
Cost of capital (WACC)
6.23%
Full financials

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted
10-16Barclays · target137.00
10-15Bernstein · target160.00
08-27Coker Palmer · target149.00
03-11Bernstein · “Outperform” from “Market Perform”upgrade
Ratings, targets and estimates

The weekly

One email a week across every stock we cover: 13F filings, insider trades, earnings and new research. It covers the whole market, not just SJM. No account.

About J.M. Smucker

The J. M. Smucker Company is an international enterprise specializing in the production and marketing of a diverse portfolio of branded food and beverage items. Its operations are organized into three principal U.S. retail divisions: Pet Foods, Coffee, and Consumer Foods. The company's extensive product offerings encompass various coffee options, including roast, ground, single-serve, and premium blends; a wide selection of spreads such as peanut butter and fruit preserves; cooking staples like shortening and oils; convenient frozen sandwiches and snacks; and a full range of pet food and treats. Additionally, Smucker provides hot beverages, portion-controlled items, and flour products for the foodservice sector, alongside frozen handheld meals, juices, beverages, and baking ingredients. These items are marketed under numerous recognizable brands, including Meow Mix, 9Lives, Kibbles 'n Bits, Milk-Bone, Pup-Peroni, Rachael Ray Nutrish, Nature's Recipe, Folgers, Café Bustelo, Dunkin', 1850, Jif, Smucker's, Smucker's Uncrustables, Robin Hood, and Five Roses. The company distributes its products through a vast network, utilizing both direct sales and brokers to reach grocery stores, club stores, discount and dollar retailers, online platforms, pet specialty stores, natural food outlets and their distributors, pharmacies, military commissaries, and large mass merchandisers. Founded in 1897, The J. M. Smucker Company is headquartered in Orrville, Ohio.

CEO
Captain Mark T. Smucker
Headquarters
Orrville, OH
Employees
8,000
IPO
1994-10-31
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.