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ConocoPhillips — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

COP
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionCIK 0001163165conocophillips.comAbout COP
Last close · Oct 16, 2026146.51+4.78 (+3.37%)
Market cap$176.0B
Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y
193.13
ConocoPhillips closed at $146.51 — undervalued by 24% vs model.
106.07the model's range416.46

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a cyclical company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models
52.73 – 190.75
Wall St. target
161.00 9% below
Below model, 1y
16 of 21 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean
Daily close

Dividends

Quarterly · as of Oct 16, 2026
Yield, trailing 12 months
2.29%
Past 2 years
low 2.29%high 3.77%
Today is at its 2-year low.
Dividends per share, a year at a time
$3.02Sep ’22$2.32Mar ’23$2.22Sep ’23$2.92Aug ’24$3.12Aug ’25$3.36TTM
Coverage
—
Raised
9 years in a row
Growth, 5 yrs
2.2% a year
Last change
+7.7% · Nov 2025
Every payment, with ex-dates · latest $0.84, paid Sep 1, 2026

Research on COP

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How it is valued

Valued asCyclical
Low/slowing growth (~3% recent)Decelerated from ~23% 5y CAGRModerate margins (15% net margin)Pays dividendsHighly cyclical earnings
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2025 · chosen for cyclical companies
P/E
23.1×
EV / EBITDA
8.6×
FCF yield
9.1%
Dividend yield, TTM
2.29%
Beta
0.13
Cost of capital (WACC)
6.40%
Full financials

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted
10-15Morgan Stanley · target159.00
10-07Truist Financial · target136.00
10-06Jefferies · target174.00
06-22Roth Capital · “Buy” from “Neutral”upgrade
Ratings, targets and estimates

The weekly

One email a week across every stock we cover: 13F filings, insider trades, earnings and new research. It covers the whole market, not just COP. No account.

About ConocoPhillips

ConocoPhillips is an energy company that engages in the global exploration, production, transportation, and marketing of various resources, including crude petroleum, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids (NGLs). Its primary operations are centered on both conventional and tight oil formations, shale gas, heavy crude, LNG developments, and oil sands projects. The company's extensive portfolio includes unconventional resources located in North America; established conventional assets spanning North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia; numerous LNG ventures; oil sands properties within Canada; and a significant inventory of potential conventional and unconventional exploration opportunities. ConocoPhillips was established in 1917 and its corporate headquarters are situated in Houston, Texas.

CEO
Andrew O'Brien
Headquarters
Houston, TX
Employees
9,600
IPO
1981-12-31
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.