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Diamondback Energy, Inc. — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

FANG
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionCIK 0001539838diamondbackenergy.comAbout FANG
Last close · Oct 16, 2026203.95+8.35 (+4.27%)
Market cap$57.1B
Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y
478.98
Diamondback Energy closed at $203.95 — undervalued by 57% vs model.
278.06the model's range1,142.58

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a cyclical company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models
16.89 – 543.19
Wall St. target
237.00 14% below
Below model, 1y
20 of 20 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean
Daily close

Dividends

Quarterly · as of Oct 16, 2026
Yield, trailing 12 months
2.08%
Past 2 years
low 1.90%high 6.39%
Dividends per share, a year at a time
$1.63Aug ’21$7.20Aug ’22$6.88Aug ’23$10.76Aug ’24$3.90Aug ’25$4.25TTM
Dividends / free cash flow, FY2025
22.1%
Raised
7+ years in a row
Growth, 5 yrs
21.2% a year
Last change
+4.8% · May 2026
Every payment, with ex-dates · latest $1.10, paid Aug 20, 2026

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How it is valued

Valued asCyclical
High revenue growth (~34% recent)Moderate margins (11% net margin)Pays dividendsHighly cyclical earningsStrong FCF yield (9.2%)
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2025 · chosen for cyclical companies
P/E
35.6×
EV / EBITDA
10.0×
FCF yield
8.9%
Dividend yield, TTM
2.08%
Beta
0.41
Cost of capital (WACC)
6.92%
Full financials

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted
10-15Morgan Stanley · target222.00
10-14Scotiabank · target250.00
10-11Jefferies · target215.00
08-19Morgan Stanley · “Equal Weight” from “Overweight”downgrade
Ratings, targets and estimates

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About Diamondback Energy

Diamondback Energy, Inc. operates as an independent enterprise focused on oil and natural gas. Its core business involves the acquisition, development, exploration, and production of unconventional and onshore hydrocarbon reserves, predominantly located within the Permian Basin across West Texas and New Mexico. The company's development efforts primarily target significant geological formations, including the Spraberry and Wolfcamp in the Midland Basin, as well as the Wolfcamp and Bone Spring within the Delaware Basin – both crucial components of the broader Permian. As of December 31, 2021, Diamondback Energy's asset base included approximately 524,700 gross acres under its control in the Permian Basin. At that time, its estimated proved oil and natural gas reserves amounted to 1,788,991 thousand barrels of crude oil equivalent. The company also maintained working interests in 5,289 gross producing wells and held royalty interests in an additional 6,455 wells. Beyond its direct well operations, Diamondback Energy possesses mineral interests spanning roughly 930,871 gross acres and 27,027 net royalty acres across the Permian Basin and the Eagle Ford Shale. Furthermore, it manages a portfolio of midstream infrastructure, owning, operating, developing, and acquiring assets such as 866 miles of crude oil gathering pipelines, natural gas gathering pipelines, and an integrated water system within the Midland and Delaware Basins of the Permian. Established in 2007, Diamondback Energy, Inc. is headquartered in Midland, Texas.

CEO
Matthew Kaes Van't Hof
Headquarters
Midland, TX
Employees
1,762
IPO
2012-10-12
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.