Expand Energy Corporation — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

EXE

NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionCIK 0000895126expandenergy.comAbout EXE

Last close · Oct 16, 202693.41+2.61 (+2.87%)

Market cap$21.6B

Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y

156.88

Expand Energy closed at $93.41 — undervalued by 40% vs model.

86.34the model's range408.29

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a cyclical company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models

39.56 – 160.03

Wall St. target

122.50 24% below

Below model, 1y

20 of 20 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean

Daily close

Valuation models

price $93.41 · as of Oct 17, 2026

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5yused86.34 – 408.29156.8840% undervalued DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y87.81 – 385.15152.4639% undervalued DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y38.56 – 199.85112.1017% undervalued DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y53.82 – 206.76118.0021% undervalued P/E · peers74.87 – 121.68104.6311% undervalued P/E · own history20.62 – 94.3439.56136% overvalued PEG—65.3543% overvalued EV/EBITDA · peers111.77 – 141.87129.8928% undervalued EV/Revenue · peers120.25 – 190.72160.0342% undervalued Dividend discount42.81 – 112.0260.2255% overvalued Wall St. consensus target—122.5024% below Cost of capital (WACC)—6.73%—

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a cyclical company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. How we value a stock walks through every input.

engine pkg:0.1.0

Dividends

Quarterly · as of Oct 16, 2026

Yield, trailing 12 months

2.46%

Past 2 years

low 1.88%high 3.67%

Dividends per share, a year at a time

Dividends / free cash flow, FY2025: 41.6%
Raised: —
Growth, 4 yrs: -23.9% a year
Last change: −60.8% · Nov 2025

Every payment, with ex-dates · latest $0.575, paid Sep 3, 2026

Research on EXE

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How it is valued

Valued asCyclical

Moderate growth (~18% recent)Moderate margins (15% net margin)Strong dividend yieldHighly cyclical earningsStrong FCF yield (8.5%)

What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2025 · chosen for cyclical companies

P/E

12.3×

EV / EBITDA

4.5×

FCF yield

8.3%

Dividend yield, TTM

2.46%

Beta

0.32

Cost of capital (WACC)

6.73%

On the lists: #50 Highest free cash flow yield · #41 Lowest P/E

Full financials

Superinvestors

13F · Q2 2026

Howard MarksOaktree Capital Management LP$477.6M BridgewaterBridgewater Associates, LP$40.8M

All 2 holders

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted

10-15UBS · target120.00

10-14Scotiabank · target111.00

10-06Mizuho Securities · target138.00

08-17Johnson Rice · “Accumulate” from “Buy”maintain

Ratings, targets and estimates

Recent

filings, insider trades and key news

10-15Form 4 · FLacy Christopher W · 1,839 sh@ 90.80 10-138-K · 5.02Departure/Election of Directors or Officers 10-068-K · 1.01Entry into a Material Agreement 09-178-K · 1.01Entry into a Material Agreement 09-168-K · 1.01Entry into a Material Agreement 09-168-K · 5.02Departure/Election of Directors or Officers

71 filings · 40 insider transactions

Comparable companies

by business, not by industry label

EQTEQT DVNDevon Energy APAAPA EOGEOG Resources COPConocoPhillips

1 more company lists EXE as a comparable

FANGDiamondback Energy

The weekly

One email a week across every stock we cover: 13F filings, insider trades, earnings and new research. It covers the whole market, not just EXE. No account.

About Expand Energy

Expand Energy Corporation functions as an independent entity primarily focused on the discovery and extraction of energy resources throughout the United States. Its core operations involve the acquisition, exploration, and subsequent development of properties to produce crude oil, natural gas, and associated liquid hydrocarbons from subterranean geological formations. The company maintains significant interests in key natural gas production areas, specifically within Pennsylvania's northern Appalachian Basin (Marcellus Shale) and northwestern Louisiana (Haynesville/Bossier Shales). As of December 31, 2023, its asset base featured a diverse collection of onshore U.S. unconventional natural gas properties, including ownership stakes in approximately 5,000 natural gas wells. Established in 1989 and based in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, the corporation was formerly known as Chesapeake Energy Corporation before officially adopting the Expand Energy Corporation name in October 2024.

CEO: Michael A. Wichterich
Headquarters: Spring, TX
Employees: 1,600
IPO: 2021-02-10

Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.