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Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

CMG
NYSEConsumer CyclicalRestaurantsCIK 0001058090chipotle.comAbout CMG
Last close · Oct 16, 202629.88−0.70 (−2.30%)
Market cap$37.8B
Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y
22.06
Chipotle closed at $29.88 — overvalued by 35% vs model.
15.40the model's range41.46

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for mature & stable — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models
5.85 – 68.30
Wall St. target
40.00 25% below
Above model, 1y
17 of 22 days

Price and model value

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How it is valued

Valued asMature & Stable
Low/slowing growth (~10% recent)Moderate margins (13% net margin)Highly cyclical earnings
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2025
P/E
26.2×
EV / EBITDA
15.8×
FCF yield
3.6%
Dividend yield, TTM
0.00%
Beta
0.96
Cost of capital (WACC)
9.11%
On the lists: #42 Near 52-week lows
Full financials

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted
10-16Raymond James · target37.00
10-15Morgan Stanley · target40.00
10-15Stephens · target38.00
08-24Baird · “Neutral” from “Outperform”downgrade
Ratings, targets and estimates

Comparable companies

by business, not by industry label

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About Chipotle

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., along with its affiliated companies, oversees the ownership and daily running of Chipotle Mexican Grill eateries. By February 15, 2022, its global presence included roughly 3,000 restaurant locations spread across the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and other parts of Europe. The company was established in 1993 and maintains its principal office in Newport Beach, California.

CEO
Scott Boatwright
Headquarters
Newport Beach, CA
Employees
130,301
IPO
2006-01-26
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.